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Perspectives Papers

Perspectives Papers provide analysis from BESA Center research associates and other outside experts on the most important issues pertaining to Israel and the Middle East.

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In the first days of the war that broke out following the October 7 massacre conducted by Hamas, Turkey employed a relatively balanced discourse about it. But after the bombing of Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza on October 17, Ankara hardened its stance and bluntly condemned Israel. This change in Erdoğan’s rhetoric reflects a long pattern of anti-Israel sentiment. Erdoğan's support for Hamas in the wake of the massacre pulls Turkey, a NATO member, further away from the West. As long as Turkey pays no price for its anti-Israeli rhetoric, it will continue, and the resulting distance between Turkey and the West could have serious consequences.
In response to the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, the United States has deployed significant naval forces to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea. This strategic display of sea power aims to deter regional escalation and address unexpected challenges, such as the Yemeni Houthi pirate and missile offensive in the Red Sea. The US Navy presence, which features advanced aircraft, destroyers, and a Marine Expeditionary Unit, demonstrates a commitment to regional stability and the readiness for significant combat operations, if necessary, while also highlighting the need for a more durable solution to the ongoing conflict.
The escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict to incorporate a maritime dimension provoked by a Houthi-led offensive against commercial shipping represents both an escalation and a significant strategic challenge. This development extends the conflict's impact beyond regional boundaries, threatening Israel's security, global maritime commerce, and the principles of international maritime law.
Hezbollah began in 1982 as an Islamist organization founded and shaped according to the ideological model of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The organization was founded to establish an Islamist regime in Lebanon and conduct a jihadist war against the enemies of Islam: the West and Israel. Hezbollah gradually “Lebanonized”, meaning it claimed to be limit the military struggle to Lebanese territory, integrated into the Lebanese political system, and established an extensive civil infrastructure. This transformation was accompanied by a new discourse stressing its role as defender of Lebanon. But Hezbollah’s Lebanonization has not in any way diluted or moderated its conception of Israel, with which it believes itself to be in a doomsday war. Hezbollah’s military empowerment since the withdrawal of the IDF in 2000 does not correspond with its discourse about defending Lebanon. Hezbollah's involvement in the fighting since October 8 is not mere lip service but a demonstration of its total commitment to what it perceives as its deterministic conflict with Israel.
Israeli intelligence failures - particularly those leading to the failure to warn of a large-scale attack, as suffered by Israel in the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 - are typically followed by the creation of investigative committees that scrutinize intelligence processes, highlight gaps and vulnerabilities, and recommend mechanisms to prevent future failures. But without a profound cultural shift within the intelligence organization and its personnel – specifically, the integration of humility into the organizational DNA – these mechanisms will not deliver the desired outcome.
Innovation and entrepreneurship are the cornerstones of contemporary economics. Recent history has shown that they are also among the most effective tools in overcoming disasters and crises. Post-WWII Japan, New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, and the COVID-19 pandemic all demonstrated how entrepreneurship and innovation aid recovery and growth and strengthen communities and economies after disasters. The State of Israel has experienced one of the most devastating disasters in its short existence, a brutal terror attack on its southern region that took place on October 7, 2023. In order to support the nation’s healing process and revive the affected region’s economy and shattered communities, the Israeli government must enlist its considerable power of innovation and entrepreneurship.
© IDF Spokesperson
In order to complete the eradication of the Hamas organization in Gaza, a ground offensive in southern Gaza will be required. A serious challenge in executing this offensive is that the majority of the population, following their evacuation from northern Gaza, is now in the south, effectively doubling the population in that area. If Israel is to deprive Hamas of its last defenses against the IDF, continue its impressive compliance with international law, and fulfill its commitment to the Americans to conduct a war based on shared values, it will have to move the Gazan population away from expected combat zones in urban areas of the south. As Egypt will not accept the use of Sinai as a haven for Gazan citizens, other solutions are being considered, including establishing protected areas in the South or relocating Gazans back to the north. But it might also be worthwhile to advance a plan led by the Americans, with international and regional participation, to establish temporary accommodation camps for the residents of Gaza in the Negev. This plan would also involve international assistance for returning Israeli residents of the Gaza envelope.
© IDF Spokesperson
The Hamas attack on October 7 was formulated based on intelligence gathered by the terrorist group in advance, a significant proportion of which was unclassified civic or non-strictly classified military information. This reflects a broader phenomenon defined as "unclassified secrets" - information which, while not classified, nevertheless holds considerable or even critical value to an adversary. To establish guidelines to deal with this phenomenon, its complexity has to be acknowledged. Due to the open availability of such information, any means of controlling it will require a nuanced approach that balances democratic concerns about freedom of information and the public's right to know with security needs.

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