Technically, by agreeing to return to the demarcation of the borders according to the Alma-Ata Declarations, the Armenian side validates the Azerbaijani thesis of the “just war”. The demarcation agreement will lead to the departure of the Russian border guards from the Armenian side – they were stationed there by request of Yerevan because it was afraid of military escalation.
Iran
Armenia, like other post-Soviet countries, particularly in the southern region, traditionally pursues a multi-vector foreign policy. The aim of such a policy is to utilize different options to maximize foreign assistance and support. This often involves addressing unconventional tasks to balance conflicting foreign policy vectors. Armenia faces a similar task of balancing in the new configuration.
Iran would become Armenia’s new patron and it could eventually join the ranks of pro-Iranian proxies, with dire consequences for the country. In this scenario, Iran would also gain new arguments and resources in its interaction with Russia, Turkey and India, which it could exchange for something else. This could create new threats to Israel.
The revolutionary rhetoric and practices corresponding to the “second stage of the Islamic Revolution” proclaimed by IRI leaders two decades ago have in some cases proved unproductive in building Tehran’s bilateral relations with a number of Muslim states. This includes post-Soviet Central Asia.
Iran has been an active player in Central Asia for more than three decades, arguing for its special role in the development of the post-Soviet states of this sub-region — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. For Iran, the existence of ties with Central Asian states is a continuation of centuries-old traditions of historical and cultural relations interrupted during the Soviet era.
Israel is perceived as an important part of the Western, American-centric world. Consequently, relations with Israel are seen as a component of an intricate set of strategies in the multi-vector foreign policy of Central Asian governments. This policy aims to maintain a delicate balance, primarily in the triangle of relations among the three key powers in Eurasia: China, Russia and the West.
By signing military cooperation agreements with France and the United States, Armenia have chosen to "Go West" as the most logical substitution to a major vector of Yerevan former foreign policy line. However, Armenia’s estrangement from Moscow, seems leading it to and entirely different direction - eastward, towards Iran and India.
The Eurasian Economic Union declared 2024 the year of IT technologies. This sector has long been well-developed in Armenia, with Armenian IT companies maintaining a close cooperation with Silicon Valley. Thus, Iran will have a unique opportunity to develop its IT technologies, which seemed quite impossible not so long ago.
On the morning of October 7, 2023, when several thousands of heavily armed fighters from the radical Islamist terrorist group Hamas attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip, invading Israeli border settlements and other communities in the south of the country, a significant number of samples of weapons and equipment used by the group's Iran-trained military wing fell into Israeli hands right then.
- BESA Center
- October 25, 2023
- Paper No. 2225
Israelis have united around the goal of toppling the Hamas regime, but little has been said about what would come after. This issue is critical to Israel’s security and must be addressed. Israeli interests are best served by establishing in Gaza a PA-linked administration alongside a massive reconstruction program backed by the US and other international and regional actors. Israel’s declaration of support for establishing such a regime in Gaza as soon as possible would provide a political direction to the military operation and enhance its international legitimacy. Defeating Hamas must ultimately mean not only its military destruction but the empowerment of a moderate Palestinian alternative.