Greater Middle East May Force China to Project Military Power Sooner Rather than Later

China may have no short-term interest in contributing to guaranteeing security in parts of a swath of land stretching from Central Asia to the East coast of Africa, but that does not prevent the People’s Republic from preparing for a time when it may wish to build on longstanding political and military relationships in various parts of the world to project power and maintain an economic advantage.

Is Israel in Secret Contact with Syria?

Syrian president Bashar Assad, who now views the Iranian presence in his country as a burden, wants to oust Tehran from Syrian soil—and he has come to realize that achieving that goal will require Israel’s involvement. That may be why secret contacts are being reported between the two countries.

Syria: The Decline of the Last Conventional Threat

Avi Jager
August 25, 2020
Paper No. 1707

Following the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, the Syrian state became a breeding ground for militant groups and foreign fighters. While Assad’s allies managed to save his regime, those alliances came at a price. The declining state of Syria’s demographic and economic stability combined with its deteriorating military power in the region has eliminated the need for Israel to view the Assad regime as a central threat to its national security, at least over the short term.

Syria Is Tempting, But Will China Bite?

China looms large as a potentially key player alongside Russia and Iran in President Bashar Assad’s post-war Syria. With Russia and Iran lacking the financial muscle and the US and Europe refusing to engage with the Assad regime, China is, from Syria’s perspective, a shining knight on a white horse. Syria could become a key node in China’s infrastructure, telecommunications, and energy-driven Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—but it could also drag China closer to the Middle East’s multiple conflicts.

UAE-Turkey Rivalry Wreaks Havoc in Libya and Syria

The United Arab Emirates and Turkey are locked in a regional power struggle that has fueled conflict in Libya and could spark renewed fighting in Syria. This struggle, like that between Saudi Arabia and Iran, threatens to keep the Middle East and North Africa on edge.

Will Kurdish Unity Talks Lead to a More Muscular US Policy on Syria?

The US is backing Kurdish unity talks as part of a policy centered around appeasing Turkey’s national security concerns about the PYD’s essential role in Syria. However, all signs indicate that Turkey sees this gesture as no more than a ruse to normalize its enemies. Only a more involved and active US foreign policy will cement any gains around a more stable and unified Kurdish presence.

Turkey and the Libyan and Syrian Civil Wars

Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is constantly looking for opportunities to enhance its status as a regional superpower and promote its Islamist ideology in the Arab Middle East. Libya is the newest arena in which Erdoğan is trying to capitalize on inter-Arab rivalries, this time in service to his desire to lay claim to gas under the seabed of the Mediterranean.

Coming Home to Roost: War Threatens to Spill Beyond Syria’s Borders

As tens of thousands more refugees are shunted by Turkey toward Europe and a new phase of the brutal Syrian war unfolds, Russia, Turkey, the EU, and the international community are being handed the bill for a flawed short-term approach to the nine-year conflict that lacked empathy for the millions of victims and was likely to magnify rather than resolve problems.

Will China Rebuild Syria?

After almost a decade of civil war in Syria, the question of who will be in charge of the reconstruction has arisen over and over again (though any practical activity in that direction will have to be suspended during the acute stage of the coronavirus crisis). China’s position on this issue can be discerned by looking at its prewar relations with Syria and the way it has behaved during the war.

Turkey vs. Syria: A Culture of Enmity

The 290 Turkish soldiers killed in action on Syrian soil in recent years are a grim reminder of the unsettled questions that continue, after decades, to poison relations between the two neighboring countries.