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Belarus

IDF OPERATION
The resulting IDF's Iron Swords Military Operation has caused, as usual, an outburst of anti-Semitism around the world. However, unlike previous military confrontations with terrorists, this time the world's anti-Semitic reaction to Israel's actions was not only much stronger, but also affected countries and regions that usually refrain from displaying violent anti-Israeli rhetoric and positions.
Belarus is growing increasingly isolated and is pushing itself more and more into Russia's embrace. Moscow is taking the opportunity to cement Belarus as a buffer state against Western geopolitical influence. But contrary to the established analysis, unless there is a real chance of a pro-Western government being installed in Minsk, Russia is unlikely to push for any radical scenarios, including full integration.
During simultaneous crises in Armenia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan, Moscow faced challenges that contained opportunities to reap geopolitical benefits. Moscow’s handling of these crises demonstrates that its policy toward its neighbors has evolved away from direct intervention and toward careful maneuvering, which is both face-saving and more geopolitically rewarding.
Unlike his predecessor Donald Trump, President Joe Biden is taking an active interest in Belarus, a small country on the periphery of Russia, and suggesting a more hawkish policy toward Russia. It’s worth looking into the possible reasons for his interest and the possible pitfalls.
Peaceful revolution has finally come to the last dictatorship on Russia’s Eastern European periphery. President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus has become an illegitimate leader due to a rigged election. Facing weeks-long massive public demonstrations, he has appealed to Vladimir Putin for help—but what happens next might be up to Donald Trump.
Alexander Lukashenko’s days as the autocratic president of Belarus are clearly numbered, and Russia will likely play a key role in his exit. What is less clear is just how that exit will come about and what role the neighbor to the East will play. Recent history provides us with a few possible scenarios.

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