Israel’s ship of state, facing rough seas, is at high risk and requires clearer rules of navigation. During this period of deep complexity, Israel will need to clarify its strategic direction. The terrorists of Hamas are the tip of Iran’s much larger spear. Israel’s current war against jihadist criminality could thus turn into a wider and more damaging war with Iran. Such a war could emerge as a “bolt from the blue” or incrementally. Ultimately, it could involve the United States, Russia, China, Pakistan, and/or North Korea. How might Jerusalem prevent or manage any such derivative conflicts? Israel must consider whether there is a productive role to be played by the “Samson Option.”
Iranian nuclear program
- Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek
- February 19, 2021
- Paper No. 1937
Samples recently collected by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors at two Iranian sites showed traces of radioactivity. Tehran had not reported any nuclear activity at these sites and denied IAEA inspectors access to them until just a few months ago. The findings suggest that Iran, in violation of the JCPOA nuclear agreement it signed in July 2015, has continued to conduct activities related to nuclear military development.
- Erfan Fard
- February 12, 2021
- Paper No. 1929
A recent television interview with Iranian Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi provides President Joe Biden’s national intelligence team with useful information as it assesses how to deal with the Iranian regime.
- Dr. Albert Wolf
- January 11, 2021
- Paper No. 1878
The recent killing of Mohsen Fakrizadeh, the “father of Iran’s nuclear program,” is another in a long series of attempts to disrupt Tehran’s dogged drive for nuclear weapons. These strikes, which have ranged over decades, have included the killings of Iranian nuclear scientists, cyberattacks on the Iranian nuclear program, and mysterious explosions at the regime’s nuclear sites. Yet no one, including the US, has conventionally attacked Iran’s nuclear sites despite the clear and present danger posed by a nuclear Iran to American national interests and general international security. Why not?
- Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek
- August 19, 2020
- Paper No. 1700
Many factors contributed to the peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, but it appears that the primary contributor was Israel’s steadfast stand against Iran’s nuclear program and its military expansion in the region.
- Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek
- July 24, 2020
- Paper No. 1658
According to the international media, the fingerprints of Israel and the US are all over the recent series of explosions at strategic targets throughout Iran—notably the Natanz uranium enrichment plant, which had been used to assemble advanced centrifuges. The demolition of that site would likely result in a one- to two-year delay in Tehran’s nuclear program.
- Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek
- January 14, 2020
- Paper No. 1405
Tehran has announced it is withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal following the killing by the US of Quds commander Qassem Soleimani. It also stated, however, that it will continue to cooperate with the IAEA and expressed its willingness to return to the deal if the economic sanctions are lifted. This suggests that despite its repeated violations of the nuclear deal over the past year, Iran is reluctant to escalate conflict.
- Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek
- January 3, 2020
- Paper No. 1391
The new DG of the IAEA, Rafael Mariano Grossi, charged upon taking office on December 3 that Iran has not yet provided an explanation for uranium particles found at a Tehran warehouse. He also protested the abusive behavior of the Iranian authorities toward the IAEA inspector at the end of 2019. However, he has not addressed Iran’s violations of the 2015 nuclear agreement, suggesting that he would like to avoid an antagonistic relationship with Tehran.
- Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek
- December 4, 2019
- Paper No. 1363
Iranian president Hassan Rouhani’s recent announcement of the renewal of uranium enrichment at the Fordow fuel enrichment plant, as well as high-level Iranian gloating about recent progress in the development and operation of uranium enrichment centrifuges, may indicate that Tehran intends to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear agreement and effect a breakout toward nuclear weapons production in 2020.