The Nascent Russia-Lebanon Alliance and Israel

| March 23, 2018

Though Russia has been gradually increasing its economic and military influence in Lebanon, it is unlikely that Moscow is prepared to irreparably compromise its relations with Israel. Russia faces competition from other actors in Syria, and good relations with Israel can serve its interests there.

The Qatar Opposition: Avoiding the Hariri Miscalculation

| March 12, 2018

The widely criticized attempted resignation by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri backfired as a political move against Iran for two reasons: first, because Hezbollah is already largely in control of the Lebanese government; and second, because the Saudis, who backed the move, have little leverage inside the country. Continuing efforts to effect similar change inside another Iran proxy, Qatar, are bound to fail for similar reasons. In order to succeed, the Saudis and their allies should build authentic relationships with potential supporters and create an environment receptive to their interests.

Saudi Arabia’s Lebanon Gamble Might Pay Off

| December 1, 2017

Time will tell, but Saudi Arabia’s gamble to pressure Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed, Lebanese Shiite militia, by forcing Saad Hariri, the country’s prime minister, to resign, may be paying off despite widespread perceptions that the maneuver backfired.

Hezbollah’s Firm Grip on Lebanon Fuels Region’s Sectarian Strife

| November 29, 2017

Saudi Arabia is alarmed at the rapid expansion of Iran and its proxies. That alarm reached a new peak when the Kingdom accused Hezbollah of launching a ballistic missile from Yemen towards its international airport in Riyadh. Hezbollah’s presence in Yemen is assisting Iran as it attempts to gain hegemony over the region.

The Hezbollah-Fath al-Sham Ceasefire: A New Regional Equilibrium?

| August 31, 2017

According to a recent Lebanese press report, a ceasefire agreement has been signed between Hezbollah and the insurgent group Fath al-Sham. This pivotal agreement may serve as an opportunity for both sides to widen the ceasefire into a full agreement that will end the Syrian civil war, which would enable Hezbollah to redirect its efforts towards Israel. Israel must address these developments and implement a new strategy to meet the new era.

The Threat of the “Salafi Crescent”

| January 21, 2014

Attempts by al-Qaeda and other radical Sunni Islamist groups to challenge the Shia Crescent (Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon) must be viewed as a serious security threat.

Elections in Lebanon: A Hizballah Takeover?

Hizballah is on a determined path to control Lebanon. The June 2009
parliamentary elections could be a watershed, leading to a result that the West will deeply regret – an Iranian-like regime.

The Threat of Al-Qaeda and Its Allies in Lebanon

| September 19, 2007

Clashes between the Lebanese army and the al Qaeda-affiliated Fatah al Islam organization in north Lebanon, and similar attacks against UNIFIL forces in south Lebanon, reflect the challenges of radical jihadi Sunni Islam on the stability of the country and the region. The Lebanese government’s ability to face these challenges appears limited, with the degree of its success largely dependent on international support and the consent of local power brokers such as Hizballah and the Palestinians.