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Lebanon

The recent rocket fire from Lebanon into Israeli territory connects with Hamas’s overall strategy of expanding the scope of the confrontation between itself and Israel that sharpened during the war in Gaza in May of this year. It is by no means clear that Israel is equipped to prevent this from becoming a regular event.
Despite their desire to evict sectarianism from their country’s corrupt government, Lebanese civilians are likely to see increased tensions across religious lines. Iran will continue to back Hezbollah despite its regional weakening, while Turkey and Qatar will play a bigger counterbalancing role by increasing their influence on the Sunni community.
France’s longstanding diplomatic involvement in Lebanon was intended to promote Lebanese stability, sovereignty, and democracy, but it has failed to achieve any of those goals. As long as Paris continues to consider Hezbollah integral to Lebanon’s democratic life and denies that it is a terrorist organization controlling Lebanon with a private army, its ability to stabilize Lebanon will remain slim to nil.
The recent explosion at Beirut Port highlights both Turkey's growing defense cooperation with Iran and its strategic interest in Lebanon, which facilitates Ankara’s provocative and worrisome agenda in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, Turkey’s unrestrained aggression in that region may be a diversionary tactic from its slow and patient pursuit of a complex strategy to surround Egypt with hostile forces on multiple fronts and undercut its powerful regional role.

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