Implications of the Swords of Iron War on South Korea

The surprise military attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the war that began after this attack, should lead policymakers in South Korea to reconsider their defense policy toward North Korea – particularly border defense and defense against missile and drone attacks.

The Asian Nuclear Discourse and Its Wider Implications

Public discourse in South Korea and Japan has begun to include discussion of the development of nuclear capabilities. This policy change in the regional nuclear discourse, together with attempts by North Korea and Russia to legitimize the use of tactical nuclear weapons, should raise concerns not just in Asia but in the Middle East as well.

Japan’s New Defense Policy

Japan has stated that it will broaden its defense policy, a sign of growing concerns in Tokyo about the threat of North Korean and Chinese aggression. The change of policy also reflects the continued influence of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who expanded Japan’s definition of what constitutes acts of self defense.

The North Korean Nuclear Program: The End of CVID?

The Biden administration has accepted the fact that CVID—the complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantling of the North Korean nuclear program—will not occur under the Kim Jong-un administration. The time has come to find other realistic options.

The Quadruple Threat: North Korea, China, Pakistan, and Iran

The vast, uninterrupted territory that contains North Korea, China, Pakistan, and Iran has greater geostrategic importance today than ever before. Of the two outermost countries of that territory, an anonymous senior US administration official recently said that "Iran and North Korea have resumed cooperation in the framework of a project on long-range missiles that includes the transfer of core components."

The 75th Anniversary of North Korea’s Kim Dynasty: A Striking and Strange Spectacle

Kim Jong-un recently presided over an extraordinary military parade in Pyongyang to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Kim dynasty’s control over North Korea. While the parade unveiled some gargantuan hardware that was clearly intended to inspire awe and fear in Kim’s adversaries, it also highlighted the wastefulness and imbalance of Pyongyang’s military machine.

Japanese Defense Policy Is Changing

Japan’s defense policy is changing incrementally. Evidence of this was recently provided by Japanese DM Taro Kono, who stated publicly that a preemptive strike by Tokyo on North Korean missile bases would be legitimate if Pyongyang had decided to launch missiles at Japan.

Trump-Kim-Moon: Back to Square One?

Two years after the summits Kim Jong-un attended with Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in, respectively, the three states are almost back to square one. Initially, there was great optimism that it would be possible to dismantle the North Korean nuclear and missile program and achieve peace among all three parties—but misunderstandings by Washington, Pyongyang, and Seoul of one another’s goals led to the failure of the process.

Media Frenzy Notwithstanding, Kim Jong-un Is Apparently Still Alive

Kim Jong-un was mysteriously absent from both the state event of Kim Il-sung’s birthday on April 15, 2020 and the celebration of Korean People’s Army Day on April 25, 2020. This set off a media frenzy about the state of his health. Social media quickly divided into two camps: one claiming he was either dead or in a vegetative state, and the other claiming it was all fake news motivated by anti-North Korean ideology. On May 1, 2020, pictures and video clips were broadcast on North Korean media of Kim Jong-un attending a ceremony, so he appears—if appearances can be trusted—to be alive.

You Only Live Twice, Korean Style

The miraculous “revival” of Kim Kyong-hui, the long-thought-dead aunt of North Korean dictator Kim Jung-un, illustrates the confusing opacity of North Korean internal politics. Pyongyang is in a difficult position, as Kim has failed to capitalize on the summits with Trump and China is now preoccupied with mitigating the economic impact of the coronavirus.