10 Israel at the Beginning of the Trump Era – “Shaping the Day After” The election of Donald Trump to the presidency heralds a new era in US domestic and foreign policy. Although President Trump will not take office until January 20, 2025, it is already possible to examine the possible implications of his election for the Middle East and the potential created to bring about strategic changes in the region, in cooperation between Israel and the new administration. Israel, for the first time in years, has an opportunity to conduct an in-depth strategic dialogue with a team of senior officials who have previously been exposed to Israel’s security needs In recent days, the president-elect has completed a round of senior appointments to key positions in managing US foreign and security policy. It seems that Israel, for the first time in years, has an opportunity to conduct an in-depth strategic dialogue with a team of senior officials who have previously been exposed to Israel’s security needs and have shown attention and willingness to examine a joint strategy to achieve three main goals: • containing Iran, reducing its regional influence and, above all, preventing it from achieving a military nuclear capability; • allowing Israel, against the backdrop of the regional war, to realize its security goals in both Gaza and Lebanon; and • renewing efforts to promote normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a complementary step to the Abraham Accords and as part of a regional structure that will contribute to strengthening stability and economic prosperity in the region. I will focus below on the realization of the achievements of the war, the so-called “Day After”. The end of the multi-front war – “The Day After” design At this stage, it is not possible to assess whether the settlement efforts in Lebanon led by the Biden administration will mature sufficiently to ensure a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon by January 20, 2025. However, it appears that these efforts, which are based on Israel’s military achievements in this arena, are based on the changed reality on the ground, which should be reflected in the arrangements of the “day after.” The severe blows suffered by Hezbollah; Iran, the organization’s patron; and the organization’s leadership removed the basic condition they had previously set for a settlement in Lebanon, which prevented the advancement of an end to the war in Gaza. It appears that the Trump administration shares the Israeli view that the settlement in Lebanon should “stand on its own two feet” and be completely separate and unconditioned by developments on the war front in Gaza. The collapse of the principle of unity of arenas creates a situation of clear prioritization in the political handling of the two main war arenas. In Lebanon, Israel is setting concrete goals of 1) pushing Hezbollah’s military presence north of the Litani River; 2) creating a security reality that prevents Hezbollah from regaining a foothold near the border with Israel; and 3) preventing the organization from rearming itself with Iranian assistance. It is currently unclear what enforcement mechanism will maintain the Ran Segev served for 31 years in a variety of senior roles in the Israeli security establishment, mainly in the fields of intelligence and national security.
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