14 Donald Trump’s Second Presidency Whatever queries we might have, it’s hard not to respect Donald Trump’s 2024 electoral victory. Before providing some insights into his foreign policy, we must address the man himself and his political strategy. After four years of ups and downs in the White House and an excruciating downfall in 2020, the defeated president did not easily give up his place there. Over the last four years, we have witnessed an unceasing campaign by a man in his late 70s who was determined to return to the White House. Ultimately, he pulled out a victory over an incumbent VP at the electoral level as well as in the popular vote, by a margin of 4 million votes. Donald Trump is a multifaceted and very determined individual—a person unwilling to accept conventional norms as binding. As a second-term president, we can assume he will seek to leave his mark on history. We cannot ignore his capricious personality, which was on full display during his previous administration. The two central issues most strongly prevalent in his election campaign, and which, according to all estimates, brought him victory, were revitalizing the American economy and stemming illegal immigration to the US. From this, we can assume that his primary focus will be on the domestic arena. However, due to the strong linkage between the two arenas and the global status of the US, Trump will have to deal with foreign policy. Here he will encounter conflicts between different values, so we can expect a less coherent policy. Trump’s foreign policy and national security personnel selections are undoubtedly extremely positive for Israel. Trump’s appointments for Secretary of State, the Pentagon, National Security Advisor, ambassadors to Israel and the UN, and the President’s Middle East envoy collectively constitute a team sympathetic to Jerusalem. To balance this team, he appointed his in-lawMassad Boulus, a Lebanese-American businessman, as his advisor on the ME. There is no doubt that this sends a message to the region, the Arab states, and Iran. However, another common denominator running through Trump’s appointments is loyalty to the President. Three key officials from the previous term - Vice President Pence, Secretary of State Pompeo, and Ambassador Haley - will not be included in the new administration. Trump will be expecting his newly appointed officials to be committed to executing his political strategy. Trump’s foreignpolicy andnational security personnel selections are extremely positive for Israel Given these insights, what can we expect from the new administration’s initial foreign policy? We can assume that the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Iran struggle, and the growing tensions between China and Taiwanwill occupy the incoming administration. Trump’s perceived disregard for allies, lack of sympathy for the Ukrainian cause, and demand of PM Netanyahu that he end the war would indicate that most of his attention will be given to Asia. Relations with China encompass strategic and economic issues. The intention to impose tariffs on imports from China was already on the agenda during Trump’s previous term and even intensified during Biden’s presidency. Pressure is also likely to be applied to Zelensky to reach an agreement with Russia, thus separating Putin from Beijing. All of the above pose a big question for Netanyahu: What will be Trump’s position on Iran during or after Israel concludes its multiple-front war? Prof. Shmuel Sandler is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Bar-Ilan University. He is an expert on Israeli electoral politics, Israeli foreign policy and national security, and US foreign policy.
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