28 Trump and Erdoğ� an: The Future of US-Turkey Relations In 2020, during a meeting at the White House, President Donald Trump asserted that he has a longstanding friendship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğ�an. Trump said, “The President and I have been good friends for a very long time, almost from day one, and we understand each other’s country and where we are coming from.” He emphasized that trade was the foundation of their strong relationship and pledged to increase bilateral trade between the US and Turkey to $100 billion. Following Trump’s success in the 2024 election, Erdoğ� an swiftly took to social media to greet Trump, referring to him as “my friend.” For Turkey, the transition from President Biden to President Trump offers relief. Biden had expressed concerns over Turkey’s democratic backsliding under Erdoğ� an, notably going so far as to exclude Turkey from the 2021 Summit for Democracy. This exclusion marked a critical stance on Erdoğ� an’s governance. In contrast, under Trump’s administration, the American pastor Andrew Brunson was released from Turkey and returned to the US. Additionally, the death of exiled religious leader Fethullah Gülen, whose extradition Turkey had long demanded from the US, removes another obstacle in US-Turkey relations. Despite Trump’s generally positive stance toward Turkey, significant controversies remain However, despite Trump’s generally positive stance toward Turkey, significant controversies remain. Trump, while fostering a friendly relationship, imposed sanctions on Turkey five times during his previous tenure. These tensions, particularly over issues like the Kurdish forces in Syria and the S-400 missile defense system, are likely to persist regardless of the two presidents’ personal rapport. While it is not specifically related to Trump, US support for Kurdish groups in Syria that Turkey considers to be linked to the PKK, a designated terrorist organization, is an obstacle in the countries’ bilateral relations. This issue has persisted across multiple US administrations, with Trump’s decision to arm Kurdish forces in 2017 adding further strain to US-Turkey relations. However, the deepest friction with the incoming US administration is likely to be caused by Trump’s apparent disapproval of Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system. The US views this purchase as a significant threat to NATO’s defense architecture, as the S-400 could potentially compromise the security of NATO’s advanced technology, including its F-35 jets. As a result of the S-400 transaction, Turkey was excluded from the F-35 program, depriving it of access to both the jets and the industrial opportunities associated with producing parts for the aircraft. This issue has remained a key point of tension in the broader context of US-Turkey relations. Even the overall positive trade relations have had their ups and downs. While Trump and Erdoğ� an both expressed interest in expanding trade, the imposition of tariffs and sanctions created economic friction. The growing Turkish opposition to Erdoğ� an – particularly the CHP – can be a source for distrust for Erdoğ� an if Trump meets with their members and strengthens ties with the opposition. This would be a clear sign of Trump’s discontent with Erdoğ� an. Prof. Efrat Aviv is a professor in the Department of General History at BarIlan University. She is an expert on Turkish religious movements, Israeli-Turkish relations, antisemitism in Turkey, and Ottoman-Turkish Jewry.
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