34 Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un: Back to Square One? Donald Trump was the first US president to meet, during his term in the White House, with an acting North Korean leader. On June 12, 2018, Kim Jongun and Trump met in Singapore and signed a joint declaration that was supposed to ease tensions in the Korean Peninsula and bring peace to Korea. The Singapore Summit created huge expectations but failed to achieve its goals. The failure of the Hanoi Summit on February 27-28, 2019, to implement the declaration demonstrated its pitfalls. Pyongyang and Washington failed to continue negotiating. Washington didn’t lift the sanctions as KJU wanted, and Pyongyang didn’t disarm its nuclear and missile capabilities. Trump’s second term challenges Washington, Pyongyang, and the regional players. Trump’s hawkish foreign and security teams signal to Kim Jong-un that his second term will include more threats and sanctions. Trump might consider pursuing the brinkmanship strategy he used in his first term. He knows that increased pressure on North Korea will not gain the support of China or Russia, and they might ease the pressure from Washington by assisting Pyongyang. In Russia’s case, this might be an acknowledgement of North Korea’s assistance to Russia during the war against Ukraine, and would reflect the generally improved relations and increased trade between Pyongyang and Moscow. Trump will not be able to bring the Singapore Declaration back to the table. Kim Jong-un has stated that nuclear disarmament is no longer up for discussion. As long as Russia continues the war with Ukraine, it will need North Korea’s support in the form of weapons and soldiers. Russia has become an important economic pipeline for North Korea. China will continue to be North Korea’s main trade partner, even when Russia increases its trade share with NK. Pyongyang will continue to test and launch short-range, middle-range, and long-range missiles. It will also continue to test drones that it has under development in the hope that Russia and Middle East customers might be interested in buying them. Trump’s hawkish foreign and security teams signal to Kim Jong-un that his second term will include more threats and sanct ions As long as North Korea’s missiles land in the sea, Washington will condemn these tests but contain them. Pyongyang might even conduct its seventh nuclear test, secure in the knowledge that Beijing and Moscow will not support new sanctions by theUNSC. Trump has been elected to his second and last term. He will not compete for a third. This gives him a free hand to initiate policies towards KJU or suggest a new summit. Trump could choose to legitimize North Korea’s nuclear weapons by offering KJU a deal that includes economic incentives which in the long run might lead to a bottom-up change in North Korea. Dr. Alon Levkowitz is Chair of the Asian Studies Department at Bar-Ilan University. His research focuses on politics and foreign relations in East Asia, Korean foreign and security policy, and Northeast Asian security.
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