6 What Will Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Look Like? The Trump administration will be united by a hawkish approach to foreign policy. It will be willing to usemoremilitary force and use itmore frequently than the Biden administration, while being less concerned about “collateral damage” (i.e., the death of civilians in harm’s way) and the humanitarian cost of war more generally. The administration will also be more prepared to act unilaterally than its predecessor. However, it will be divided about the depth and breadth of America’s commitment to its allies. While some of Trump’s key nominations are traditional Republicans who view allies as an essential component of a grand strategy based on international leadership, the president himself has been outspoken in expressing isolationist views. Trump is not interested in America leading an international order, but rather in focusing on defense of the homeland and protecting America’s economic interests with tariffs rather than by promoting free trade. Duringhis first administration, the US did not respond militarily to serious attacks on its allies in the Middle East, notably on Saudi oil processing facilities in 2019. Trump also seemed prepared to withdraw from NATO, America’s most important alliance. It remains unclear whether this is mere posturing or an underlying conviction. Either way, there will be heavy pressure on US allies to contribute more in financial and military terms. According to these criteria, Israel comes out very well in military terms – it fights its own battles and is highly effective. But it is by no means clear that Trump would have been inclined to act as quickly and generously as did President Biden following October 7. Biden’s response came from the gut. He is deeply committed to the defense of Israel out of conviction, and strongly believes that America’s alliances in general are critical to its security. Trump lacks these attributes; he personally takes a more transactional approach. His pro-Israel policy was marked more by support on symbolic and political issues, like moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, than any upgrading of the strategic relationship. Moreover, given that Trump cannot stand for reelection, he is no longer beholden to the proIsrael evangelical base of the Republican Party. Some of Trump’s nominations have indicated that they would support US involvement in an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program. Other more isolationist-leaning figures have hinted that they would not On the other hand, leading figures in his administration will no doubt share Biden’s convictions on the de facto alliance with Israel. Not backing Israel would damage America’s credibility worldwide and invite challenges by America’s adversaries on other US allies. Moreover, the main concern of isolationist-leaning members of the administration is that the US must not be drawn into a long costly war. The Biden administration managed to supply Israel with over 500 transport planes full of military equipment without triggering such a war. It is an open question whether the Trump administration would actively support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program. This is of critical importance because the US has far greater capabilities than Israel. Moreover, direct US involvement has the potential to provide a highly effective deterrent against restarting the program, at least during Trump’s term in office. Prof. Jonathan Rynhold is the head of the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University. His research focuses on US-Israeli relations, Israeli politics and foreign policy, and the Middle East peace process.
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