8 Continuity and Change in Trump’s Approach to Israel Many Israelis, from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ordinary citizens, are happy with Donald Trump’s victory in the recent US presidential election and expect him to support Israel as emphatically as he did during his first term. This, however, may not be the case. Four sources of information may help to forecast Trump’s approach to world affairs and Israel: the theory and history of presidential performance during second terms, Trump’s policies during his first term, statements he made during his election campaign, and the people he has chosen to nominate to key positions in foreign policy and national security. Theory and history aren’t that useful where Trump is concerned because he has systematically defied both throughout his political career. But we do know that in second terms, presidents often behave differently than they did in their first and are more concerned about their legacies. This is especially true for Trump, who lost his bid for a second term, waited four years, came back and won. He has grown older, and in the last four years much has occurred in the US, the world and the Middle East. Trump is unpredictable and at times erratic, but there is almost invariably both continuity and change in US policy. Trump’s main motivation is to rebuild his reputation both inside and outside the US. Winning a second term has rehabilitated him domestically, and winning the Nobel Peace Prize would rehabilitate him internationally. Trump has said he will be a man of peace, striving to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and reduce the threat of World War III. During his first term, like his predecessors Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Trump identified China as the number one challenge to US domination in world affairs. China has become a partner with Russia, North Korea and Iran in the “axis of evil.” This axis is helping Russia in the war against Ukraine. Israel dealt a major blow to the axis by destroying the “ring of fire” Iran established around its borders. The regime change that just occurred in Syria is only the most recent element of this regional transformation. Theory and history aren’t that useful where Trump is concerned because he has systematically defiedboththroughouthispolitical career Iran fears Trump because he might restore harsh sanctions or give the green light to an Israeli attack on its oil and/or nuclear facilities. The regime could either seek a nuclear agreement with Trump or break out to the bomb. They have indicated interest in nuclear negotiations with Trump, and he has suggested that he might be interested as well. The prospect of another nuclear agreement that is full of holes will not appeal to Israel. Trump has stated that he wants the war in Gaza to be over and all Israeli hostages to be released by his inauguration on January 20, 2025. He also appears to want to implement Biden’s vision of adding Saudi Arabia to the AbrahamAccords via normalization of relations with Israel. One of Riyadh’s core conditions is some kind of Israeli commitment, albeit vague, to Palestinian statehood. Trump’s 2020 “Deal of the Century” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Prof. Eytan Gilboa is an expert on US-Israel relations, international communication, and public diplomacy. He is the founding head of both the School of Communication and the Center for International Communication at Bar-Ilan University.
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