20 The Air and Missile Defense of Israel During Operation Rising Lion Operation Rising Lion saw the most intensive battle to date between Iran’s offensive missile array and Israel’s active and passive defense. While Iran’s missile offensive was patterned according to the long-declared strategy of retaliation by massive salvos of ballisticmissiles andUAVs, Israel’s defensive strategy relied not only on its multi-layer missile defense shield but also on a preemptive air offensive against Iran’s missile launchers, which measurably curtailed Iran’s missile firepower. At the same time, Israel’s airborne defense – perhaps aided by friendly air forces – succeeded in inflicting a decisive defeat on the Iranian UAV offensive. Operation Rising Lion saw the most intensive battle to date between Iran’s offensive missile array and Israel’s active and passive defense Israel’s Operation Rising Lion started with an airborne surprise attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including Iran’s nuclear experts, in the early morning hours of June 13, 2025. The attack was carried out by several hundred crewed and uncrewed aircraft of Israeli Air Force. While there are unconfirmed reports of non-Israeli air bases having been used to launch the strike, it seems more reasonable to assume that close to the entire June 13 attack, as well as subsequent Israeli air operation throughout the 12-day campaign, originated from Israeli territory. The June 13 opening strike targeted not only nuclear assets but also air defense and ballistic missile bases. While an effort at suppressing air defenses is part and parcel of any air force doctrine, the apparently considerable resources dedicated by Israel to the suppression of Iran’s ballistic missile launching capability was a new feature in Israel’s air doctrine. The Iranian threat to retaliate “swiftly, within minutes, and devastatingly” by huge salvos of ballistic missiles was apparently taken by Israel at face value. Hence the extraordinary effort, even during the opening strike, to erode the anticipated Iranian retaliatory missile strikes. Despite Iran’s threat of “swift retaliation within minutes”, it took them about 20 hours to respond. The first Iranian ballistic missile hit Tel Aviv at 21:11 on the night of June 13. This heralded Iran’s Revolutionary Guard operation “True Promise III”, described by them as a “crushing precise response” to Israel’s air offensive. The operation continued throughout the 12 days of war. During its course, Iran launched 550 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 UAVs against Israeli targets. Anywhere from 59 to 64 ballistic missile impacts were registered within Israel, 33 in major cities and smaller population centers. They caused 30 deaths, wounded about 2,000 people, and damaged thousands of structures. The Iranian UAVs achieved only two minor impacts, one in a small town in northern Israel and the other at an undisclosed location, with no casualties reported. As hinted by its name, operation True Promise III was the third round of Iranian missile attacks on Israel. Its predecessors, True Promise I and II, were short retaliation strikes targeting military installations but causing close to no casualties, civilian or military. In contrast, True Promise III was a protracted missile assault on Israeli population centers, national infrastructure, and military assets. It seems to have had two objectives: first, to maximize damage and casualties in Israel’s major cities; and second, to disrupt Israel’s economy. It partially succeeded in its first objective and failed Dr. Uzi Rubin Senior Researcher at the BESA Center, founder and first director of the Arrow missile defense program in Israel’s Ministry of Defense, and a leading expert on missile defense systems.
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