37 Mid-East Misstep: What the Israel-Iran War Reveals About China’s Strategic Limits The eruption of full-scale hostilities between Israel and Iran – an unprecedented conflict in the already volatile Middle East – has done more than redraw military lines and realign alliances. It has also tempered the overstated notion that China’s influence in the region is on the rise. Having increasingly positioned itself as a diplomatic as well as an economic actor in the Middle East, Beijing’s approach has shifted over the past two decades from quiet neutrality to more openly criticizing American leadership. That shift was most clearly visible during the first year of the Gaza War following the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, when China deepened alignment with Palestinian factions and the Iran-led axis opposing Israel – largely in response to Israel’s close alliance with Washington. Yet as Israel recovered from the initial shock and started dismantling the circle of proxies that Iran had spent decades building against it, thus remolding the Middle East military architecture, China pivoted from sharply critical rhetoric to a more cautious tone. While China remains far from assuming a political or military role in the region, its rapid technological progress, economics-first approach, and ties with nearly all regional actors make it an increasingly prominent supplier of dual-use technologies and military-related knowhow, hardware, production capabilities and even complete systems When the Israel-Iran War broke out, China’s tone was markedly different. Rather than placing one-sided blame on Israel, as it had during the first year of the Swords of Iron war, it adopted a more balanced stance, calling on “the parties to the conflict, especially Israel” to halt hostilities and reach a ceasefire. An official publication that referenced Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities also acknowledged the Iranian missile attack that had hit an Israeli hospital. Chinese social media, which is firmly controlled by the regime, displayed, as before, vicious criticism of Israel, but also expressions of admiration for its military achievements during the war. Most notably, China refrained from wholeheartedly standing by Iran. Thus, the war crystallized what many analysts have long suspected: that China is neither ready nor willing to back its rhetoric with action, and remains poorly positioned to replace the United States in the region. The following analysis uses the war to examine the foundations, strengths, and weaknesses of China’s Middle East policy and to draw key lessons for Israel-China relations. IRAN’S DISTINCTIVE PLACE IN CHINA’S MIDDLE EAST STRATEGY For many years, Iran has held a distinctive place in China’s Middle East strategy, serving both economic and geopolitical aims. Economically, Iran supplies 5-15 percent of China’s oil imports. After the imposition of international sanctions, China became Iran’s primary investor and trading partner. These ties were formalized in March 2021 with a 25-year $400 billion strategic cooperation agreement including discounted Iranian oil and reciprocal investment. Strategically, Iran acts as a counterweight to US influence in the region. Its partnership with China, reinforced through BRICS Prof. Yoram Evron Associate Professor in Political Science and Chinese Studies in the Department of Asian Studies at Bar-Ilan University and Senior Research Fellow at the BESA Center.
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