40 officials described as the declining credibility and overstretched presence of the United States in the region. However, the Israel-Iran War revealed the sharp contrast between these ambitions and reality. Since October 7, and more acutely during Israel’s direct military engagement with Iran, China’s role has mainly been confined to issuing standard diplomatic statements and exchanging messages with the involved parties, none of which influenced the course of events. Most notably, Beijing stood idle as the Iranian regime – its long-time partner in resisting US-led pressure – faced one of its weakest strategic moments in decades. This inaction revealed that despite years of expanding high-level diplomacy, China remains politically marginal in the region and cannot yet be regarded as a significant political actor. THE FUTURE OF CHINA’S OVERALL POSTURE IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND RELATIONS WITH ISRAEL Nevertheless, the Israel-Iran War’s ramifications do not significantly undermine China’s overall posture in the Middle East. Unlike Russia and, to a large extent, the United States, China’s influence in the region is rooted not in its military presence or strong political partnerships but in broad economic engagement. Through trade, infrastructure projects and energy cooperation, Beijing has forged durable ties with nearly all regional actors across opposing sides of conflicts and irrespective of political orientation, regime type or rivalries, with minimal political conditionality. It has also consistently shown that divergent diplomatic positions on issues outside its core interests rarely affect its economic partnerships. These ties remain China’s primary tool of influence and are widely regarded as mutually beneficial in the region. As such, despite its limited political role in the conflict, China is likely to retain its standing among regional players who value continued economic cooperation. The current conflict in the region is beneficial in some ways for Russia. Oil prices are rising, and the West has temporarily shifted its attention from Ukraine to the Middle East What does all this mean for Israel? In recent years, China has pretended to acquire a more prominent political role in the Middle East. Yet when rhetoric meets action, Beijing’s regional behavior remains essentially unchanged – except in two key respects. First, as China elevates its diplomatic profile and voices unprecedented criticism of Israel in multilateral forums and state-aligned media, it becomes harder for Israeli leaders to ignore these shifts and focus solely on bilateral economic and technological benefits. Second, while China remains far from assuming a political or military role in the region, its rapid technological progress, economics-first approach, and ties with nearly all regional actors make it an increasingly prominent supplier of dual-use technologies and military-related knowhow, hardware, production capabilities and even complete systems, either directly or indirectly. This is particularly relevant to Iran, which is expected to take significant steps to rebuild its military capabilities. For Israel, which lacks substantial leverage over China, this poses a strategic dilemma. Navigating it will require close monitoring of China’s regional activities and a measured effort to reduce critical dependencies. At the same time, Israel should make use of the limited influence it does hold, chiefly its recognition of the One China principle and its stature as a regional power, to sustain open channels of communication and ensure that China remains attentive to Israel’s red lines. Photo: Shutterstock
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