7 3. China’s increasing vulnerability to Middle Eastern geopolitical disruptions, which is likely to prompt Beijing to diversify its energy supply routes, notably by deepening reliance on Russian sources. Prof. Yoram Evron assesses how the war exposed the limits of China’s Middle East strategy and tempered inflated perceptions of Beijing’s regional influence. While China’s economic partnerships in the region remain intact, the conflict revealed a gap between its proclaimed role and its actual capacity for engagement. Initially aligned with Iran’s axis, Beijing adopted a more cautious stance as Israel gained the upper hand. Its reluctance to offer substantial support to Tehran underscored two core weaknesses: repeated strategic miscalculations and limited regional leverage. These developments, Evron argues, require Israel to reassess its relationship with China. This should entail pragmatically reducing strategic dependencies, closely monitoring Chinese regional behavior, and ensuring that Beijing remains responsive to Israel’s vital interests. Prof. Alexander Shpunt and Prof. Vladimir (Ze’ev) Khanin analyze Russia’s ambivalent stance toward Operation Rising Lion – particularly in its final phase, when the United States joined Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. President Trump’s post-war plan proposes an international nuclear consortium to mitigate proliferation risks while allowing Iran to pursue civilian nuclear power. Russia could theoretically join such a consortium, which would potentially constitute a major diplomatic and strategic prize for Moscow and for Vladimir Putin personally. However, even if the deal is formalized, it remains uncertain whether Russia will ultimately benefit from this arrangement. Dr. Lauren Dagan Amos highlights how the regional escalation of 2025 unfolded along two key fronts: India-Pakistan and Israel-Iran. In April 2025, a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, prompted a direct Indian military response against Pakistan. Two months later, Israel launched its strike on Iran. These parallel developments revealed intricate interconnections among India, Pakistan, Iran and Israel, aswell asshiftinggeopolitical linkagesbetween South and West Asia. India’s policy, for instance, reflects a delicate balancing act between strategic partnership with Israel, energy and geopolitical considerations regarding Iran, and the dynamics of mutual nuclear deterrence with Pakistan. PART III: THE REGIONAL ‘DAY AFTER’ Looking ahead, Col. (Res.) Shay Shabtai likens the aftermath of the Iran War to the transformative moment following the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. The lesson from 1967, he argues, is that strategic shifts in the regional balance often accelerate radicalization, particularly in terms of public opinion, more than they produce pragmatic compromise. The challenge for policymakers is to turn the post-Iran War moment into a “Sadat-Begin” opportunity rather than a “Khomeini-bin Laden-Hamas” outcome. In such a catalytic environment, traditional paradigms like peace accords, the two-state solution, and democratization frameworks must be either updated or set aside. Shabtai proposes several preliminary concepts for shaping a new regional geo-strategy, such as: • security partnerships rather than formal coal itions • a regional network of shared infrastructure projects • hybrid state sovereignty models • semi-self governance (SSG) arrangements for conflict-prone areas. In this emerging context, Israel will require more nuanced security policies and smarter partnership strategies to safeguard its interests and shape regional developments. CONCLUSION The fundamental drivers behind Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capability and regional power projection remain intact, making further confrontations likely. A comprehensive understanding of the June 2025 war is therefore essential for policymakers, military professionals, and scholars. This panoramic, multidimensional examination spanning operational performance, strategic calculations, and regional and global responses offers critical insights for both decisionmakers and the general public into a conflict that will influence the Middle East’s trajectory for years to come. Photo: Shutterstock
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