17 will be an opportunity for the new administration to reconsider wrong policies of the past. Amid reports of an alleged Iranian plot to murder Donald Trump, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indirectly accused Israel of fabricating the story in order to harm confidence-building between Iran and the US – notwithstanding the fact that in February 2023, high-ranking IRGC commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh said Iran has a holy mission to kill Trump in retaliation for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. Newly installed (July 2024) Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, considered a reformist, has asserted that he is committed to a conciliation process with the West in order to work towards lifting Western sanctions imposed on Iran. Pezeshkian’s administration has contended that the JCPOA (the nuclear accord of July 2015) in its current format is “not good enough” anymore, and that an amended agreement is necessary. Therefore, resuming the nuclear talks should be a high priority on the international agenda. The emerging Iranian “smiling” diplomacy backed by Supreme Leader Khamenei may have important ramifications for the current boiling military tension between Iran and Israel. Though Iran has not yet backed off from its declared intention to retaliate against Israel following the massive Israeli air attack against strategic assets deep in Iranian territory (October 26, 2024), its “foot-dragging” on this matter may have a significant effect on Iranian behavior versus the US. By manifesting a certain policy of restraint towards Israel, Iran may be delivering a message to President-elect Trump of its desire to open a new chapter in Iran-US relations. It would be wise to suspect the Iranian regime’s real intentions with regard to its approach to the incoming US administration In the meantime, Iran is currently engaged in a diplomatic offensive directed towards the Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia. This demarche is linked to Tehran’s willingness to consolidate its posture in this strategic region. However, it is likely that in Saudi Arabia, there are expectations that with Trump, the US could return as the regional hegemon and provide a sense of strategic direction in which Saudi Arabia can play a key role. One thing is clear. High-ranking political figures in Iran, including government officials, are using moderate rhetoric to signal an allegedly sincere desire to cultivate a channel for dialogue with Donald Trump’s administration. One can also argue that Iran’s rapid developments in its nuclear program can serve as serious leverage in future negotiations with the West. Experience suggests that it would be wise to suspect the Iranian regime’s real intentions with regard to its approach to the incoming US administration. The mullahs’ top priority was, and still is, to reach a sufficient military nuclear capability to annihilate the State of Israel. To the regime, that end justifies the means.
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