18 Trump’s Second Term: Implications for the Energy Sector Examining the implications of President Trump’s reelection appears at first glance to be an easy task for most experts, especially when it comes to the energy sector. After all, we can draw conclusions from his first term, as well as from the rhetoric that characterized his campaign. However, the picture is a bit more complex. Let’s start with the obvious. The Trump administration will refocus on the familiar energy sectors, oil and gas and perhaps nuclear. As the president-elect said during the campaign, “We have more liquid gold than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia. More than Russia”, implying that it should be exploited economically and perhaps also politically. Moreover, President Trump’s lack of concern for the climate crisis does not augur well for the renewable energy sector. As you may recall, Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement during his previous term. Regardless of what he does now, he is unlikely to cooperate with the ambitions of the climate conference for a newmechanism to finance renewable energies for developing countries. But other factors need to be considered. The many investments made with government encouragement during the Biden administration in the fields of renewable energy have been successful. They are driving an economic sector that is vibrant in terms of both employment and profits, in “red” (Republican) as well as “blue” (Democratic) states. The Biden administration also managed to pass the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act), which encouraged investments in these areas. Should Trump wish to repeal the law, there is no certainty that he will be able to, given the balance of power in the Senate (despite the Republican majority) and also in the House. Given that this sector is economically successful, Trump might prefer in any case to avoid doing it any serious harm. It is also worth noting Elon Musk, who is very close to the president, created and owns Tesla, the electric car manufacturer. As the president-elect said during the campaign, “We have more liquid gold than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia. More than Russia” We can therefore cautiously summarize the outlook for the incoming administration’s energy policy as follows: Rhetorically, we will return to his first administration’s tone, with clear hostility to the discourse surrounding the climate crisis and a stress on the need to invest in America’s “liquid gold” to generate profits and improve the state of the American economy. This will also be done in practice by encouraging investment and expanding gas and oil production, including fracking technology. Trumpmight also lift the Biden administration’s freeze on granting new licenses for the construction of gas liquefaction facilities in the US. At the same time, the administration will adopt a more selective and focused policy towards the renewable energy sector. This could entail reductions in environmental regulations that demand stricter standards and sometimes even exact fines for polluting energy companies. Another very important angle concerns Europe. The Biden administration, which formed a Western coalition against President Vladimir Putin in response to the invasion of Ukraine, sought to Ambassador (Emeritus) Michael Harari was Israeli Ambassador to Cyprus (2010-2015). He is a consultant in strategy, policy and energy.
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