19 greatly reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and succeeded in doing so. In the first half of 2024, 47% of the liquefied gas purchased by Europe came from the US (!) and only 18.7% from Russia. The rest came from countries like Algeria, Qatar, and others. From the US perspective, this is a political achievement as well as an economic one. From the European perspective, this constitutes an unhealthy dependence on a single energy supplier. European countries were not afraid of this dependence under the Biden administration, but a Trump administration is a different story. On the one hand, Trump will likely want to persevere to continue reaping the economic gains that result from the arrangement. On the other hand, it is difficult to assess how this calculation will be affected by Trump’s policy toward Russia and desire to bring an end to the war. Brussels and quite a few capitals on the European continent will be closely and anxiously following Trump’s decision-making on this front and its possible consequences. The importance of the Persian Gulf, from the perspective of the Trump administration, remains the same, both in light of its desire to maintain low energy prices (meaning it will be less comfortable than its predecessor about allowing an attack on Iranian oil facilities) and in light of its desire to promote normalization (a new “deal of the century”?) between Saudi Arabia and Israel. European countries were not afraid of their great dependence on US liquefied gas under the Biden administration, but Trump is a different story In the Eastern Mediterranean, the natural gas in the region, which is mostly Israeli, has a major impact on the region at large. Israeli exports to Egypt and Jordan are of considerable importance to the economies of those countries and therefore to stability in the wider region. Egypt, as is well known, exports some of the gas imported from Israel to Turkey and Europe, but this is accounted for by its urgent need for precious foreign currency and is not necessarily a “tie-breaker” from Europe’s perspective. The maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon did not prevent the war on the northern front, but it was not supposed to. In any case, the agreement was not dissolved and remains in place. Greek-Turkish hostility and the Cyprus problem will require much more effort to solve, despite positive developments in bilateral relations between Ankara and Athens. It is difficult at this stage to assess to what extent, if at all, the Trump administration will want to get involved. Photo: Shutterstock
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