30 What Might President Trump’s Policy Toward the FSU States Look Like? Trump’s declaration that he is returning to the White House with the aim of finishing wars rather than starting them is one of the most widely quoted memes in international public discourse since he won the US election. At this moment, it is too early to predict whether this proclamation will become a foundation of his foreign policy strategy, whether it is a real intention, or whether it is a non-binding slogan. Trump comes to his second term as president with a powerful popular mandate and an even deeper disregard for foreign policy conventions than he displayed during his first term, according to noted diplomat and Middle East expert, James Jeffrey. If that is the case, the current wars of Israel against the Iranian bloc in the Middle East and the war against the Russian military invasion in Eastern Europe are likely to be the first in line for American “pacification”. In this scenario, we must take note of the distinction between the Trump administration’s relations with Israel and Ukraine. It is likely that unavoidable disagreements between Washington and Jerusalem will be resolved behind the scenes while similar clashes of vision and divergence of interests of the US and Ukrainian leadership will be discussed openly, with the Americans exerting pressure in public. Trump, who clearly aims to reach a long-term armisticewith Putin and Zelensky that both leaders can agree upon (“Russia did not win, and Ukraine did not lose”), might be willing to make some concessions to the Kremlin in other FSU areas within the realm of so-called “ultimate Moscow interests”. For example, Washington might limit its involvement in the internal and international affairs of such countries as Georgia and Moldova, which, despite substantial domestic opposition https:// besacenter.org/victory-as-a-defeat-on-theresults-of-the-presidential-election-campaignin-moldova/, formally declared their pro-Western “European choice”. Even more important for Putin, Trump might have only limited interest in Belarus, a devoted Russian satellite that took Moscow’s side in the Russia-Ukraine war. Disagreements between Washington and Jerusalemwill likely be resolved behind the scenes while similar clashes of vision and divergence of interests of the US and Ukrainian leadership will likely be discussed openly Secondly, Trump would probably be ready to “soften” American policy towards the states of Central Asia that proved their relative autonomy from Moscow by their “multi-vector” geopolitical strategies. It is unclear whether and in what way Prof. Vladimir (Ze’ev) Khanin is the Head of the Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program (PSCRP) at the BESA Center. His research interests are Russian-speaking Jewry in Israel and the Diaspora and Israel-FSU relations and Ariel Kogan is an Israeli independent researcher and columnist focused on contemporary post-Soviet politics and society.
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