12 The decision-making process in Israel was marked by close and harmonious cooperation between the military and intelligence community and the political level. It was clearly understood that maintaining secrecy was the key to the success of the whole enterprise. Indeed, there were no leaks, and all the key participants in the decision rose to the challenge. CONCLUSION When the Israeli decision was taken to launch a full-scale military operation against Iran, it was estimated that the price in terms of Israeli casualties, both military and civilian, might be substantial. But taking into account the severity of the threat; i.e., that Iran might complete the production of a nuclear bomb, it was clear that the price of inaction could potentially be much higher: it could result in a threat to Israel’s very existence. The decision to act was not taken lightly. However, two factors strengthened Israeli resolve to launch the operation: the elimination of Iran’s “ring of fire” around Israel, which included Hamas and Hezbollah; and the removal of any aerial threat to the Israeli air force over Syria due to the collapse of the Assad regime. Because the time frame from Iran’smovement fromthreshold to capacity had been shortened, the threat of nuclear breakout had become more imminent. The other major factor in Israel’s calculationwas the strategic alliance with the US. Since February 2025, following the meeting in the White House, it was clear that President Trump was absolutely sincere in declaring that Iran should not have nuclear weapons. About five months later, when Israel sent its air force into Iranian airspace, there was deep and elaborate cooperation between Israel and the US, including an understanding that direct US involvement would likely be the key to forcing Iran to accept a ceasefire offer to end the war. The military campaigns of the two states severely crippled Iran’s nuclear program. The enrichment facilities in Natanz and Fordow were put out of operation and the conversion facility in Isfahan was destroyed. Around 20 key scientists in the weapons group were also killed. And yet, Iran’s intentions in the nuclear field are still an open question. Will Tehran resume its efforts to have a bomb? Iran’s enrichment capacity was severely damaged due to the destruction inflicted on Natanz and Fordow, but the country still has 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium that can be upgraded to military level (90 percent) in a very short time. Furthermore, Iran has stockpiled at least 200 kilograms of enriched uranium to the level of 20 percent and has dispersed the production and storage of centrifuges to various locations. It is conceivable that, should the regime wish to resume its enrichment activity, it will be able to do so, if on a much smaller scale. The “weapon group” was severely weakened due to the elimination of Iran’s hard core of scientists. But it should be noted that since the war, Iran has ceased all forms of cooperationwith the I.A.E.A. This means that for the first time since it signed the NPT accord, Iran is now free of any foreign supervision. As for Iranian intentions, they remain unknown. Iran invested huge sums in its nuclear program, and most of its investment was obliterated in 12 days. Iran is vengeful and humiliated, but it is also resilient. It is too early to predict what it will do, and it should be closely monitored by Israel and the US. There should be no complacency that the Iranian nuclear threat has been removed for good. Israel and the US achieved a great deal in the war with Iran, but the threat remains that Iran may become a nuclear state. The war did demonstrate, however, that highly trained and efficient air power, combined with the right kind of intelligence, can deal with emerging threats with speed and ferocity, should they be called for. Today, Israel is now perceived in the region and the international arena as the strongest military force in the Levant. Among Arab-majority nations, Israel is feared and loathed by many, and many pin their hopes for Israel’s destruction on Iran. In Biblical times, the prophet Amos warned against complacency: “Woe to you who are at ease in Zion and confident on the hills of Samaria” (Amos, chapter 6:1). Today, Israel should be confident in its strength but always remain vigilant. With regard to Iran, we can never be at ease in Zion.
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