28 strikes going forward, and 9/11 greatly reinforced their belief that it is better to “do it to them before they do it to you.” TRUMP’S BELLIGERENT ISOLATIONISM IN PRACTICE Even during his first term, despite internal pushback from internationalists, Trump acted on these instincts. In 2017, he used the MOAB (“Mother of All Bombs”) in Afghanistan to protect US forces. In 2020, he ordered the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in response to the killing of an American contractor. However, he refrained from retaliating when Iran was behind serious attacks on its allies in the Middle East, notably on Saudi oil processing facilities in 2019. Moreover, as part of a deal that would have led to North Korea’s dismantling of its nuclear weapons and ICBMs (Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles), Trump was apparently willing to withdraw all 25,000 US troops from South Korea. More recently, after Houthi attacks on American shipping, Trump responded with greater force than the Biden administration had. But he also bypassed allies like Israel and the UK when negotiating a separate ceasefire. As US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee put it after speaking to the president, “The United States isn’t required to get permission from Israel to make some type of arrangement that would get the Houthis from firing on our ships… [But] if the Houthis want to continue doing things to Israel and they hurt an American, then it becomes our business”. On Iran, Trump differentiates between the Islamic Republic’s regional behavior and its direct threat to the US homeland. As long as Iran doesn’t target Americans, he prefers that regional allies handle the threat themselves – with America happy to sell them the weapons required to do this. The exception is Iran’s nuclear program, which could evolve into a direct threat through the development of ICBMs. InMay 2025, a leakedUS intelligence report revealed that Iran was advancing toward operational ICBMs capable of reaching the US within a decade. CIA Director John Ratcliffe, CENTCOM head Mike Kurilla, and Israeli intelligence agreed that Iran had the components needed to build a nuclear weapon in short order. Once Iran crosses that threshold, it may be too late to prevent it fromfitting ICBMswith nuclear warheads. In this sense, Israel’s window of opportunity was also America’s. Trump’s decision to participate in strikes was also influenced by Israel’s military success. This allowed Trump to link himself to a triumphant campaign with minimal risk to American lives, lowering political costs and undercutting MAGA critics like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene. Still, concerned about getting dragged into a longer war, Trump quickly declared “100% success” to avoid pressure for follow-up action that might escalate US involvement. LOOKING AHEAD Trump now appears eager to strike a deal with Iran. Encouragingly for Israel, he has publicly committed to “zero enrichment” of uranium on Iranian soil – Israel’s bottom line. This also deters other states, like Saudi Arabia, from pushing for their own enrichment rights. Trump has said he is willing to strike again if Iran restarts its nuclear efforts, and Israeli sources claim he has given them a green light to act if needed. However, Israel remains deeply concerned about Iran’s conventional missile program. Before the
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