29 war, Iran increased production of missiles capable of overwhelming Israel’s defenses, a threat Israel considers to be of the highest order. Israel wants any US-Iran deal to include limits on these missiles, but Tehran insists that negotiations address only the nuclear issue. From Trump’s perspective, Iran’s regional missile arsenal does not pose a direct threat to the US; only ICBMs do. There is a real risk that Trump could accept a deal that satisfies Israel’s minimum nuclear conditions while ignoring Iran’s missile program. Worse, he might pressure Israel not to act against Iran’s missiles to protect both the deal and his reputation. Such a deal could also lift many nuclear-related sanctions fromIran, giving itmuchgreater resources with which to rebuild its military and strengthen its remaining proxies – things it is already trying to do. While Iran currently faces internal pressure to focus on domestic spending, easing sanctions would give the regime more room to maneuver. Trump has already signaled his willingness to soften the enforcement of some sanctions, announcing that the US would no longer penalize China for importing Iranian oil – an early indication of where his thinking might lead. There is a real risk that Trump could accept a deal that satisfies Israel’s minimum nuclear conditions while ignoring Iran’s missile program Israel’s best hope may be that Iran refuses Trump’s terms, but a deal can’t be ruled out. The US and Europe have given Iran until the end of August to reach an agreement or face renewal of extensive ‘snapback’ sanctions. Rising economic pressure could push the regime toward pragmatism, as it has in the past. After all, Ayatollah Khomeini agreed to a ceasefire in the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, and Ayatollah Khamenei justified the 2015 nuclear deal as an act of “heroic flexibility.” Overall, then, the paradox of Trump’s second term is that his support for Israel may be both bolder and less reliable than ever.
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