44 Circles of Conflict and Deterrence Considerations: Dynamics Among India, Pakistan, Iran and Israel in an Era of Conflicting Strategies During the second quarter of 2025, regional escalation unfolded along two main fronts. In South Asia, the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam Kashmir in April 2025 triggered a direct military response by India against Pakistan, including airstrikes in mid-May, some of it carried out with Israeli technology, and overt diplomatic support from Israeli diplomats. Shortly thereafter, in June 2025, tensions between Israel and Iran peaked when Israel launched strikes on Iran with the aim of disrupting its nuclear program, an event that reverberated across the region. These two developments revealed intricate interconnections among India, Pakistan, Iran and Israel as well as shifting geopolitical links between South and West Asia. This chapter analyzes how New Delhi maneuvers between a strategic partnership with Israel, geo-energy dependence and geopolitical ambitions regarding Iran, and mutual nuclear deterrence in its relationship with Pakistan. It also explores Pakistan’s concerns about regional escalation, Iran’s responses and the role of the US in containing further deterioration. It offers an integrative reading of the current strategic landscape, highlighting the geopolitical complexity of a region in which diplomacy, military technology, nuclear capabilities and regional alliances converge into a tense yet restrained system, one that must be managed with caution and strategic responsibility. INDIA’S BALANCING ACT India’s foreign policy toward Iran is grounded in a careful balancing act between strategic, energyrelated, and geopolitical interests on the one hand and international constraints on the other. New Delhi avoids taking sides in West Asian conflicts, preferring to promote diplomacy, restraint and deescalation, a position that reflects the complexity of its relations with both Iran and Israel. These two developments revealed intricate interconnections among India, Pakistan, Iran and Israel as well as shifting geopolitical links between South and West Asia Iran serves as a vital gateway for India in advancing its regional ambitions in Central Asia and Afghanistan. The economic and geopolitical dimension of this partnership centers on the Chabahar Port, which India views as a strategic investment to enhance connectivity with Afghanistan, Central Asia and Europe while bypassing Pakistan and counterbalancing Chinese-led initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its presence in Gwadar Port in Pakistan. It serves as a key link in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects India to Russia and Europe. Although US sanctions have led to a freeze on Indian imports of Iranian oil, the Chabahar project and related Dr. Lauren Dagan Amos Lecturer and researcher in the Department of Political Science and the Security Studies Program at Bar-Ilan University and a member of the Deborah Forum. She specializes in Indian foreign policy.
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