43 against Iran should be seen, among other things, in the context of the prospects that Trump’s deal with Tehran on Iran’s nuclear program can open for Moscow. There is a significant gapbetweenTrump’s plan and Obama’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Action Plan, including details directly related to Russian interests. Trump’s approach contains a specific mechanism for organizing Iran’s “peaceful” energy: creating an international consortium that would ensure the production and supply of fuel for Iran’s nuclear power plants and the return of spent nuclear elements. This would address the risk of Iran’s resuming its attempt to build nuclear weapons while giving it an opportunity to develop nuclear power for civil needs. Only three countries – Russia, the US and France (and possibly China) – have a sufficient range of nuclear technologies to allow such a consortium to deploy. Theoretically, Russia could be the best candidate, politically acceptable to both Tehran and the White House. This would be a colossal prize for Moscow and for Vladimir Putin personally, in terms not only of influence on Tehran, but on the Gulf monarchies and Turkey as well. However, even if the deal is signed, it is not clear that this prize will indeed go to Russia. The White House’s disappointment with Putin’s clear unwillingness to bring the war in Ukraine to an end makes Moscow’s expectations of retaining a unique status as partner to both Tehran and the US more than questionable. but what Araghchi clearly expected – a public condemnation of the US and Israel – was not included in Putin’s speech. There was also no promise of assistance to the Tehran regime – only to the Iranian people, which in political language means humanitarian aid. Attention was also given to a short phrase uttered by Putin at his domestic event of the year, the plenary session of the Eurasian Economic Forum in Minsk. Just four days after the US strikes and three days after the Araghchi visit, the Russian president said with apparent relief that the situation in the Middle East is calming down, and the “conflict between Israel and Iran too, thank God... It will be possible to develop economic relations with all the countries of the region”. The fact thatMoscowobviouslydid not help Tehran with information about the upcoming Israeli and US strikes, a sort of self-exclusion from the Israeli/American-Iran clash, could be the second layer of the Kremlin’s policy on this conflict Analysis of Russia’s immediate reaction to the two-week military operation by Israel and the US
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