10 appearances in the US, at the UN General Assembly, and at other international forums to emphasize the need to stop Iran’s progress towards a bomb ahead of time. Israel tried to convince the international community – mainly the major players in the US and the EU – to employ “Coercive Diplomacy” vis-à-vis Iran by threatening to impose crippling economic sanctions upon it if it continued to pursue its nuclear program. It was hoped in Israel that economic pressure would facilitate the attainment of a negotiated arrangement that would restrict Iran’s nuclear activity to fields that are devoid of any military implications. In reality, Iran became what is termed a “threshold state” – that is, a state that has both the technology and the material it needs to transform very quickly into a state with an atomic military capability. In 2015, under US leadership, negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program resulted in an agreed framework. The JCPOA Agreement, sanctioned by a Security Council resolution, imposed certain limitations on Iran, especially regarding its enrichment of uranium. However, from the Israeli perspective, the agreement had many flaws. It allowed Iran to continue researching and developing more modern and efficient centrifuges. Furthermore, it did not put any limits on Iran’s production capabilities in this field and allowed Iran to keep its two main enrichment facilities, Natanz and Fordow, intact. It also gave Iran the opportunity to enrich uranium in well-protected sites. It should be remembered that Fordow was originally built as a secret, impenetrable facility expressly intended for the purpose of enriching uranium to military level. While Israel was frustrated with the results of its diplomatic effort, it continued to employ clandestine and covert operations in Iran in order to sabotage and slow down its progress in stockpiling enriched uranium and developing other capabilities that could serve in the nuclear military program. This activity included sophisticated cyber operations against the centrifuges in Natanz. According to reports published in international media, Israel also managed to sabotage enrichment in Natanz by detonating explosives at the site that caused the destruction of thousands of centrifuges. But while Israel’s clandestine activity managed to slow down Iran’s progress, it remained a form of limited warfare that would delay, but not stop, the Iranian march towards the bomb. From 2018 onwards, after the US declared that it no longer adhered to the 2015 agreement and offered to negotiate a new one, Iran embarked on a new phase in its development of military-related capabilities. It started to enrich uranium to the level of 60 percent, which is very close to the level of fissile material (i.e., 90 percent). Uranium enriched to 60 percent can be easily and swiftly enriched to military grade. Iran also increased its volume of enriched uranium. By 2024 it was in possession of 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium. According to the experts who wrote the IAEA reports, from the moment of decision, Iran could enrich enough fissile material for nine to ten atomic bombs within a few weeks. In reality, Iran became what is termed a “threshold state” – that is, a state that has both the technology and the material it needs to transform very quickly into a state with an atomic military capability. THE DECISION TO LAUNCH A FULL-SCALE MILITARY OPERATION AGAINST IRAN The military operation against Iran that began on June 13 signified a complete change in Israel’s strategy towards Iran’s nuclear program. It marked a departure from the limited, mainly clandestine operations that had been carried out in Iran for nearly 20 years to open military confrontation. This was an act of war, with all its implications, and Iran was expected to respond with all the military measures at its disposal. What was the main reason for Israel’s decision to deviate from its previous cautious strategy and risk war with a powerful state like Iran, whosemilitary is more powerful than those of Hamas or Hezbollah? By 2024, Iran was considered and, indeed, behaved like a threshold state based on the leap forward in enrichment, in terms of both percentage (60 percent, one step short of military grade) and quantity (a swift increase from 100 kilograms to 400 kilograms). Regime spokesmen openly boasted that Iran had the capability to produce an atomic bomb but had decided not to. Israel, which maintains close intelligence surveillance of Iran’s Photo: Shutterstock
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