The United States: The Next Decade

As the next decade approaches, the US stands at a historic crossroads regarding both domestic and foreign issues. The 2020 presidential and congressional elections will to a large extent determine whether the current trends of populism, polarization, and incitement coursing through American society, and of withdrawal from international leadership, will continue or come to an end; whether the phenomenon of “Trumpism” will persist or be remembered as an aberration; whether the political and ideological gaps between Democrats and Republicans that have paralyzed the administration will narrow; and whether the economic boom of the last few years will go on or the US will enter a recession. Demographic shifts are changing the face of the US, and in the course of the decade they will have a significant impact on major political, social, and economic issues.

Trump and the “Settlements”: A Preliminary Analysis

The Trump administration’s decision to repudiate an earlier approach that regarded Israeli communities across the “Green Line” as illegal has been praised and condemned. While there may be merit to seeing the move as an effort to help PM Benjamin Netanyahu or at least break Israel’s electoral logjam, there are deeper motives at play. Trump and his administration have made a hallmark of defying dysfunctional conventional wisdom and foreign policy inertia that elevate process over results. But while the predicted calamities of this policy have not materialized, the administration’s lack of any Grand Strategy makes the benefits difficult to aggregate.

Democratic Presidential Candidates and US Military Aid to Israel

Three leading Democratic presidential candidates recently threatened to use US military aid to Israel as leverage to force changes in Israeli relations with the Palestinians. Their statements were hypocritical and ignored both the value of military aid to the US military and defense industries and the realities of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The threats should be seen in the wider context of growing antagonism within the Democratic party toward Israel. The next Israeli government will have to address this challenge.

The UN Agency for Palestinians Is Even Worse Than You Think It Is

A corruption scandal involving sexual misconduct, nepotism, retaliation against whistleblowers, and lots of business-class travel has gripped the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). It represents a new low for UNRWA and is an indictment of the idea of an international agency dedicated to a single interest. But it's also a unique opportunity to see behind the curtain of a billion-dollar UN bureaucracy and phase it out.

The Bahrain Conference: Nothing New Under the Sun

“Peace to Prosperity” is certainly an ambitious title for the Bahrain Conference, which offers an “out of the box” plan to handle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The US vision essentially turns the “refugees” from liabilities into assets, thereby taking the refugee issue off the table. This concept has an historic precedent: the resettlement initiative presented by UN Secretary General Dag Hammarskjold on June 15, 1959. Both plans received the same response from Palestinians: angry dismissal.

A Memo to Jared

Dr. Alex Joffe
May 12, 2019
Paper No. 1170

A recent report indicates that President Trump’s son-in-law and advisor Jared Kushner suggested that then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and other policy makers read a January 2018 Wall Street Journal piece regarding the cutoff of American funding for UNRWA, the international agency for Palestinian ‘refugees.’ As authors of the piece referenced in the leak, we are flattered. With the administration’s much discussed peace plan to be announced in June, let us offer some last minute suggestions.

Trump’s Foreign Policy Is Not Chaotic

Though politicians and scholars harshly criticize President Donald Trump’s foreign policy as chaotic, his policymaking seems to be based upon a sound and consistent political approach, contrary to that of his predecessor in the White House. Several decisions taken by Trump can fall under the rubric of the political science theory known as “Supersession,” which stipulates that changing circumstances and the passage of time are formative guidelines to the handling of international conflicts.

Lessons from the Failed “Gaza Initiative” of 1949

Seventy years ago, while the Arab-Israeli Lausanne peace talks were deadlocked, a pioneering and creative diplomatic initiative was aired to deal with the fate of Gaza and its Palestinian Arab refugees. This US initiative was a serious effort to bring about a settlement between Egypt and Israel while contributing to a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem. Though it ended in failure, it provided valuable lessons.

The Failure of Palestinian Nationalism

The Warsaw Conference demonstrated that the popularity of the Palestinian cause continues to decline, suggesting that Palestinian nationalism has failed. Historically, the positive elements of Palestinian nationalism have been offset by its negative features, including reliance on antisemitism and negation of the Other. Pressures from above, in the form of Arab and Islamic identities, and tribal and clan pressures from below have impeded the development of a stable national identity. At the same time, strong state security institutions protect elites while weak social welfare institutions create dependence, mostly on foreign aid. While continued development of the Palestinian economy is encouraging, the contradictions of Palestinian nationalism are not easily resolved.

Germany Promotes Antisemitism and Anti-Israelism

The German government’s official policy is that it makes efforts to fight antisemitism and is friendly toward Israel. At the same time, it actively promotes antisemitism and anti-Israelism. It allows massive migration of antisemites from Muslim countries, supports discriminatory anti-Israel motions at the UN General Assembly, generously finances the antisemitism-supporting UNRWA, and congratulates the genocide-promoting regime of Iran.

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