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The Gaza Terror Offensive
19 March – 11 April 2025

WINDING DOWN, BUT NOT YET DONE
The Iron Swords/Al-Aqsa Flood War (each side uses a different name) that began on 7 October 2023 is not over, but – barring a dramatic U-turn – it is winding down.
At its height, the war was conducted on seven fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran. The intensity and method of fighting was different on each front and varied over time.
Though the

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Geo Energy Program

Azerbaijan’s Entry into Israeli Waters May Open New Export Routes with Turkey

The decision by SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, to press ahead with a gas exploration license in Israeli waters marks another significant step in the ever-deepening partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan. In addition to the economic opportunity it provides to discover new gas, the involvement of SOCAR carries significant strategic weight in a region where energy projects can forge new ties or rekindle old rivalries. SOCAR’s role as the project’s operator may facilitate a more stable multilateral energy framework in

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Greece Is Keen to Expand Ties with Israel

On March 30, 2025, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis met with President Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem. Fifteen years after the historic visit to the Israeli capital by then-premier George Papandreou, which paved the way for the ongoing Greek-Israeli friendship, the two countries are continuing to advance their strategic partnership. The necessity for closer ties with the Jewish State has become a critical element of Greek foreign and military policy, and there is political consensus on

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The Complex Dynamics of Turkey’s “Savior” Image

Turkey’s involvement in Syria is having an effect on its regional standing, and is shaping an image of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a Muslim savior. Turkey is exploiting the instability in Syria to achieve its own strategic objectives, which primarily include a curbing of the Kurdish threat, an expansion of Ankara’s regional influence, and a positioning of Turkey as a protective Muslim power.

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“Assessment Is Nothing, Assessing Is Everything” – How to Make Intelligence Assessment Dynamic and Effective

The IDF’s current mechanism for determining and providing intelligence assessments rigidifies the thinking of intelligence analysts, and increases the risk that they will not recognize changes in the behavioral patterns of the adversary that affect the predictive ability and relevance of the forecast. Providing assessments should be the beginning of the process, not the end. A structured, open, and ongoing discussion of an assessment can make both the process and the product more dynamic in the face of changing conditions.

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illustration: AI generated
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How to Effectively Engage Azerbaijan in Trump’s Regional Plans and in Israel’s Interests: Practical Recommendations

Azerbaijan, a Shia Muslim-majority country, has the longest-standing and most comprehensive partnership with Israel. Azerbaijan is the only strategic partner in the Muslim world of the US’s main ally in the Middle East. It shares borders with both Iran and Russia, and may thus be considered one of the pillars of Israel’s regional strategic security architecture. Against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s efforts to reshape the global order, Azerbaijan’s significance—for both American and Israeli strategic interests—has grown even further.

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