The Gaza Terror Offensive
19 March – 11 April 2025

WINDING DOWN, BUT NOT YET DONE The Iron Swords/Al-Aqsa Flood War (each side uses a different name) that began on 7 October 2023 is not over, but – barring a dramatic U-turn – it is winding down. At its height, the war was conducted on seven fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran. The intensity and method of fighting was different on each front and varied over time. Though the war was initiated by Hamas from Gaza, it was no less a war between Israel and the Iranian axis than a war between Israel and Hamas. For now, that war is ended. Iran, its proxies and its allies, not including its Palestinian allies, decided that continuing the hostilities was costing more than it was worth. An agreement was reached between Israel and Hezbollah, and the others, though not part of that agreement, ceased action. The war between Israel and the Palestinians continues, albeit differently. There is an almost complete ceasefire in Gaza that may or may not continue, and Israel has escalated its operations against Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Judea and Samaria.

Greece Is Keen to Expand Ties with Israel

On March 30, 2025, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis met with President Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem. Fifteen years after the historic visit to the Israeli capital by then-premier George Papandreou, which paved the way for the ongoing Greek-Israeli friendship, the two countries are continuing to advance their strategic partnership. The necessity for closer ties with the Jewish State has become a critical element of Greek foreign and military policy, and there is political consensus on the value of the relationship. New defense synergies that will likely complement older agreements are currently on the agenda.

Disarming Syria Under the Al-Julani Regime – The Biological Weapons Dimension

While the Syrian chemical weapons program has been targeted and degraded since 2013, almost nothing has been done about Syria’s biological weapons program. The recent regime change in Syria could provide an opportunity to finally locate and destroy Syria’s biological weapons program.

The Complex Dynamics of Turkey’s “Savior” Image

Turkey's involvement in Syria is having an effect on its regional standing, and is shaping an image of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a Muslim savior. Turkey is exploiting the instability in Syria to achieve its own strategic objectives, which primarily include a curbing of the Kurdish threat, an expansion of Ankara’s regional influence, and a positioning of Turkey as a protective Muslim power.

North Korea’s Air Force Adds AWACS Platforms to Aircraft

The North Korean Air Force has installed AWACS/AEW platforms on several Russian transport aircraft. If the installation is based on the Chinese KJ2000, there is a good chance that Israeli know-how has reached the North Koreans indirectly.

Hamas’s Plan to Turn Gaza Into Another Lebanon

Hamas seeks to end the war while maintaining its military control over Gaza, mirroring Hezbollah’s pre-war dominance in Lebanon. Israel must not allow this to happen, even if Egypt pushes for it.

“Assessment Is Nothing, Assessing Is Everything” – How to Make Intelligence Assessment Dynamic and Effective

The IDF’s current mechanism for determining and providing intelligence assessments rigidifies the thinking of intelligence analysts, and increases the risk that they will not recognize changes in the behavioral patterns of the adversary that affect the predictive ability and relevance of the forecast. Providing assessments should be the beginning of the process, not the end. A structured, open, and ongoing discussion of an assessment can make both the process and the product more dynamic in the face of changing conditions.

How to Effectively Engage Azerbaijan in Trump’s Regional Plans and in Israel’s Interests: Practical Recommendations

Azerbaijan, a Shia Muslim-majority country, has the longest-standing and most comprehensive partnership with Israel. Azerbaijan is the only strategic partner in the Muslim world of the US’s main ally in the Middle East. It shares borders with both Iran and Russia, and may thus be considered one of the pillars of Israel’s regional strategic security architecture. Against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s efforts to reshape the global order, Azerbaijan’s significance—for both American and Israeli strategic interests—has grown even further. This is driven by key trends in Washington’s new foreign policy approach, within which Azerbaijan’s advantages and capabilities can be effectively leveraged.

Germany’s Expanded Role in the Mediterranean

The German Navy is facing new challenges in the Middle East ranging from arms smuggling to air defense. These challenges are developing in the context of increasing escalation in Europe, particularly in the Baltic Sea and in Northern Europe.

The Historical Roots of President Trump’s Gaza Relocation Plan

President Donald Trump's controversial initiative to relocate the Palestinian population from the Gaza Strip, primarily to Egypt and Jordan, is causing a stir in the Arab world. While the strong public resistance to the idea expressed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordanian King Abdullah seems to negate the possibility that the president's initiative can be implemented, President Trump insists that his plan is achievable and that Egypt and Jordan will eventually cooperate. His resettlement idea, viewed in today’s political environment as anathema, has a series of historical precedents.

Perspectives Papers