Facebook-f Twitter Youtube

Perspectives Papers

Perspectives Papers provide analysis from BESA Center research associates and other outside experts on the most important issues pertaining to Israel and the Middle East.

View Archive

Israel’s Victory, While Costly, Legitimized the Deal of the Century

After fighting for two blood-soaked years and paying a heavy price during the Swords of Iron War (the War of Revival), Israel has succeeded in achieving major military and diplomatic gains. The most significant are the restoration of Israeli deterrence by forcing the aggressor to suffer grievous losses and the major diplomatic achievement of UN Resolution 2803. This resolution grants, for the first time, legitimate status and a path to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on President Donald Trump’s "Deal of the Century." The plan has a realistic chance of being implemented while upgrading the existing status quo. It does not negate the establishment of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and even allows Israel, under certain conditions, to annex up to thirty percent of the territory. Thus, Hamas, which presents itself as a national-Islamic liberation organization, has effectively led the Security Council to recognize the possibility of Israeli annexation of a significant portion of Judea and Samaria.

The Attack on Venezuela: A Geopolitical Revolution

The recent US military attack on Venezuela constitutes a turning point in the evolution of the international system. Contrary to claims that such actions are now “business as usual” in an anarchic world, the Americans’ unilateral and officially acknowledged use of military force for regime change without international authorization marks a profound erosion of the post-World War II international order. Unlike Cold War-era covert interventions, the Venezuelan case signals the breakdown of a key normative barrier separating indirect influence from overt coercion. This development undermines the legal and normative arguments employed by the West in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, revealing a structural similarity in strategic methodology irrespective of political intent or outcome. The attack on Venezuela is part of a wider American grand strategy centered on consolidating control over the Western hemisphere while reducing global engagement, and it will accelerate the transition toward a fragmented, multipolar, and increasingly anarchic international system.

The Armed Man on the Bosphorus: Turkey 2026

In recent years, Turkey has emerged as a rising regional power. It has independent defense industries, produces armed and unarmed UAVs, missiles, warships, and advanced weapons systems, and maintains an extensive military presence from Syria to the Horn of Africa. The Turkish vision was articulated by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in his annual New Year’s address for 2026, in which he described Turkey’s military buildup as a “major leap forward” encompassing all domains of defense. Erdoğan frames this process as a “historic opportunity” for Turkey to convert military achievements into lasting success. However, the very military power that was expected to strengthen Turkey’s regional and international standing has, in recent years, isolated the country, entangled it both domestically and externally, and pushed it backward rather than forward.

India, Israel, and the Rewiring of the  Horn of Africa

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland was not an isolated diplomatic move but part of a broader strategic process of rewiring the regional order in the Horn of Africa. The Israeli move, which challenges Iranian entrenchment and Turkish and Chinese dominance in the region, fits neatly with India’s concept of “maritime statecraft”. This convergence creates synergy between India’s legitimacy in the Global South and Israel’s technological and operational capabilities. Somaliland can serve as a testing ground for a non-formal regional order that strengthens the sovereignty and resilience of regional actors (particularly Ethiopia) while offering a stable alternative to centralized and coercive models.

Israel, Greece and Cyprus: In Search of New Synergies

On 22 December 2025, Israel, Greece and Cyprus had their tenth trilateral summit in Jerusalem. The three countries are endeavoring to steadily expand their cooperation, and the timing of the recent event is telling. Athens’s and Nicosia’s pragmatic approach to Jerusalem during the Gaza war and the Israel-Iran war served their national interests, and they are pursuing agreements with both the Israeli defense market and the energy sector. The Cypriot and Greek presidency of the EU in 2026 and 2027 can serve as an opportunity to recalibrate EU-Israeli relations following a period of disagreement and strain.

US Involvement in Gaza Is Not a Threat— It Is a Strategic Opportunity

US involvement in Gaza does not reflect a loss of Israeli control but rather a new strategic framework that emerged after Israel's 2022 integration into CENTCOM. This shift enabled unprecedented regional coordination, real-time intelligence sharing, and a multilayered defensive posture against Iran and its proxies. Following the Gaza fighting, a joint US-Israel command structure was established, enhancing operational integration while preserving Israel’s independent decision-making. For years, Israel debated the idea of a formal defense treaty with the United States but hesitated due to the fear of losing strategic autonomy. The current arrangement effectively creates a hybrid model. While not a formal alliance, it provides many of its advantages, including stronger deterrence, coordinated defense, deeper strategic depth, and the capacity for joint action, while maintaining Israel’s freedom of action.

Is the UAE Deepening Its Strategic Involvement Against the Houthis?

The Red Sea crisis predates the Swords of Iron War, but became a specifically Israeli security threat after October 2023, with the start of a Houthi military-terrorist solidarity campaign with Hamas. The Houthis launched a blockade on Israeli-linked shipping, but also harmed Red Sea maritime traffic in general with attacks on ships, causing a 50% reduction in Suez Canal traffic within a few months and forcing the Israeli Port of Eilat to suffer serious losses. The cessation of Houthi attacks on US vessels in May 2025, following a ceasefire agreement with Washington, did not signal an end to the conflict but rather a shifting of the crosshairs to focus more on trying to blockade Israel from the south. Since the October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire, the Houthis have held their fire against Israel. Reports suggest that the UAE, possibly with the quiet blessing of Saudi Arabia, and anti-Houthi forces within Yemen are building new strategic positions to deal with the ongoing radical Shiite threat from Saana.

A Tsunami of New Technologies Is Reshaping the Battlefield

RUSI’s annual Military Technology Conference, held in London in October, presented a comprehensive picture of the technological revolution underway in the British Army and in other European militaries—a transformation that reflects the Russian threat and operational lessons emerging from the war in Ukraine. Future force design is transitioning sharply from hardware-centric to AI-driven and autonomous systems, with the strategic objective that by 2035, most combat platforms will be unmanned. Along with announcing massive investments and flagship programs, the conference identified key obstacles: bureaucratic delays, gaps between civilian AI and battlefield requirements, and legal and ethical challenges associated with integrating autonomous systems. The conference highlighted lessons learned from the war in Ukraine in shaping European military analysis, yet scarcely addressed the many lessons to be learned on Middle Eastern battlefields. The conclusion: Britain is undergoing a profound conceptual and operational shift, but its success will depend on overcoming structural barriers, accelerating innovation, and transforming advanced technological capabilities into effective military power within a short time frame.

A Whole New Ballgame:
India Has a New Security Paradigm

For nearly a decade, India has been shedding the vocabulary of strategic restraint. The cycle of responses to major Pakistan-based terrorist attacks, including Uri in 2016, Balakot in 2019, and Pahalgam in 2025, made clear that predictable retaliation had not deterred cross-border terrorism. In fact, it enabled it. Restraint, once thought to be stabilizing, had become strategically dangerous. Predictability gave militant groups the space and time to prepare for new attacks. Eventually, Delhi’s belief that terrorism could be contained below the threshold of interstate conflict collapsed. As was made clear in Operation Sindoor, India has crossed a doctrinal threshold. It no longer responds to terrorism with calibrated warnings or waits for international partners to validate its choices. It is building a new operating logic rooted in coercive clarity and a willingness to act first when its citizens are threatened.

Accessibility Toolbar