Perspectives Papers

Perspectives Papers provide analysis from BESA Center research associates and other outside experts on the most important issues pertaining to Israel and the Middle East.

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Welcome to the New Iran

While it is still too early to evaluate the effects of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion in terms of the internal situation in Iran, it can be argued that the operation was the tipping point that took Iran from a strong theocracy to a weak dictatorship. Within this framework, we can talk about the crumbling of the idea of the rule of the clerics, segmentation of the regime's top echelon, the radicalization of its strategic approach towards the region, the increasing murderousness of the regime’s repression of the population, and the economic aid to the regime's supporters at the expense of the general public – the last of which will move into a battle for survival resulting in less protest and more violence. Iran is a completely different country from the one we analyzed prior to the most recent conflict. It is now a country that contains both risks and opportunities that require a completely new situational assessment and planning.

Why Did the US Just Lift Sanctions on Iranian Oil?

On March 20, 2026, the US announced a temporary 30-day lifting of sanctions on the sale and delivery of Iranian oil. The permit applies only to oil that was already loaded onto tankers by that day, and the oil in question must be unloaded by April 19. This should not be misread as a gesture to Iran. It is intended as a means of quickly releasing tens of millions of barrels of already-purchased oil onto the global market. The object is to ease pressure on oil prices, which should buy the US more time to achieve its war aims.

The Epic after the Fury: Analyzing Alternative Futures

The achievements of the joint American-Israeli Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion are fundamentally changing Iran's strategic situation. However, several key variables remain that can affect the operation’s results. Future scenarios can include both the continuation of the existing regime and the rise of an entirely different regime in Iran. Preparations should be made now for the post-war period, including plans to enforce ceasefire terms and to resume hostilities, should either prove necessary. The international community should demand a serious agreement that addresses the chemical, nuclear, missile and proxy threats posed by Iran, as well as the regime’s oppression of its people and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Efforts should be increased to find leaders who can run Iran with a different approach: a “Gorbachev” in the existing regime and/or a “King” in another.

Tehran’s Escalation Doctrine: Why Iran Is Now Targeting the Entire Middle East

Iran’s recent missile and drone attacks across the Gulf mark a dangerous expansion of the Islamic Republic’s regional war. The Islamic Republic appears to be widening the battlefield beyond American and Israeli targets by pressuring Gulf Cooperation Council states that had previously attempted to maintain neutrality in the conflict. This strategy risks transforming potential mediators into adversaries while strengthening regional security cooperation between Israel, the United States, and Sunni Arab states. Iran’s escalation reflects internal vulnerabilities within the clerical regime, including the economic crisis, political repression, and growing domestic unrest. By projecting power externally, Tehran seeks to reinforce its ideological authority while diverting attention from internal instability. Ultimately, Iran’s expanding aggression may achieve the opposite of its intended goal by accelerating the formation of a broader regional coalition that is determined to contain its ambitions and restore stability to the Middle East.

The Iran Crisis Is a MAGA Opportunity

A US strike on Iran, even one that does not result in regime change, represents a strategic opportunity that aligns well with MAGA priorities. Weakening Iran would curb the China-Russia-Iran axis, secure energy dynamics, strengthen America’s position ahead of potential conflict with China, and reduce the long-term risk of a larger global war.

Israel’s Victory, While Costly, Legitimized the Deal of the Century

After fighting for two blood-soaked years and paying a heavy price during the Swords of Iron War (the War of Revival), Israel has succeeded in achieving major military and diplomatic gains. The most significant are the restoration of Israeli deterrence by forcing the aggressor to suffer grievous losses and the major diplomatic achievement of UN Resolution 2803. This resolution grants, for the first time, legitimate status and a path to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on President Donald Trump’s "Deal of the Century." The plan has a realistic chance of being implemented while upgrading the existing status quo. It does not negate the establishment of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and even allows Israel, under certain conditions, to annex up to thirty percent of the territory. Thus, Hamas, which presents itself as a national-Islamic liberation organization, has effectively led the Security Council to recognize the possibility of Israeli annexation of a significant portion of Judea and Samaria.

The Attack on Venezuela: A Geopolitical Revolution

The recent US military attack on Venezuela constitutes a turning point in the evolution of the international system. Contrary to claims that such actions are now “business as usual” in an anarchic world, the Americans’ unilateral and officially acknowledged use of military force for regime change without international authorization marks a profound erosion of the post-World War II international order. Unlike Cold War-era covert interventions, the Venezuelan case signals the breakdown of a key normative barrier separating indirect influence from overt coercion. This development undermines the legal and normative arguments employed by the West in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, revealing a structural similarity in strategic methodology irrespective of political intent or outcome. The attack on Venezuela is part of a wider American grand strategy centered on consolidating control over the Western hemisphere while reducing global engagement, and it will accelerate the transition toward a fragmented, multipolar, and increasingly anarchic international system.

The Armed Man on the Bosphorus: Turkey 2026

In recent years, Turkey has emerged as a rising regional power. It has independent defense industries, produces armed and unarmed UAVs, missiles, warships, and advanced weapons systems, and maintains an extensive military presence from Syria to the Horn of Africa. The Turkish vision was articulated by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in his annual New Year’s address for 2026, in which he described Turkey’s military buildup as a “major leap forward” encompassing all domains of defense. Erdoğan frames this process as a “historic opportunity” for Turkey to convert military achievements into lasting success. However, the very military power that was expected to strengthen Turkey’s regional and international standing has, in recent years, isolated the country, entangled it both domestically and externally, and pushed it backward rather than forward.

India, Israel, and the Rewiring of the Horn of Africa

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland was not an isolated diplomatic move but part of a broader strategic process of rewiring the regional order in the Horn of Africa. The Israeli move, which challenges Iranian entrenchment and Turkish and Chinese dominance in the region, fits neatly with India’s concept of “maritime statecraft”. This convergence creates synergy between India’s legitimacy in the Global South and Israel’s technological and operational capabilities. Somaliland can serve as a testing ground for a non-formal regional order that strengthens the sovereignty and resilience of regional actors (particularly Ethiopia) while offering a stable alternative to centralized and coercive models.

Israel, Greece and Cyprus: In Search of New Synergies

On 22 December 2025, Israel, Greece and Cyprus had their tenth trilateral summit in Jerusalem. The three countries are endeavoring to steadily expand their cooperation, and the timing of the recent event is telling. Athens’s and Nicosia’s pragmatic approach to Jerusalem during the Gaza war and the Israel-Iran war served their national interests, and they are pursuing agreements with both the Israeli defense market and the energy sector. The Cypriot and Greek presidency of the EU in 2026 and 2027 can serve as an opportunity to recalibrate EU-Israeli relations following a period of disagreement and strain.