The Coming Storm of Autonomous War Robots and the West’s Dangerous Phobias

The war in Ukraine is acting as a super-accelerator in the development of low-cost, low-tech, mass-produced robotic military systems – robot armies, in other words - by actors with little financial or technological ability. One of the biggest questions weighing on the future global and regional balance of power is who will be the first to link these robot armies to artificial intelligence, which would allow them to operate autonomously. The West is possessed by phobias and obsessions that hinder it from adopting such systems. By contrast, forces that place a strong emphasis on the development of asymmetric capabilities – including both state and non-state actors hostile to the West – have absolutely no such inhibitions, creating a dangerous potential new reality.

“Confused Seas”: The Current State of Maritime Affairs

The global maritime arena is undergoing a period of change and upheaval. This includes Iranian aggression and Houthi piracy, conflict in the Black Sea, maritime border disputes over energy deposits in the Mediterranean Sea, tensions in the South China Sea, Russian and Iranian shadow ships, drought in the Panama Canal, and new emissions standards for vessels, all of which are hindering global trade while adding to the cost of energy transit and insurance. This article provides a brief overview of these emerging challenges, examines the connections between them, and points to steps the global community must take to address them.

The Yemeni Houthi Missile Arsenal and the Threat to Israel

The Yemeni Houthi movement declared war on Israel on October 31, and the Iran-supplied and -funded Houthi missile threat to Israel is destined to become a permanent feature of Israel’s missile threat environment. The Houthi missile threat is now as tangible and dangerous to Israel as the missile threats from Gaza and Lebanon.

How Can Israel Complete Its Victory in the Swords of Iron War?

The IDF is winning the Swords of Iron War, and the position of the State of Israel is being strengthened. Wherever the IDF reaches, Hamas ceases to function as an organization and military force. Israel has had significant achievements in terms of the hostage deal and the IDF’s substantial operational successes against Hezbollah. Israel has also been assisted by the American coalition's activity against the jihadist threat, and there has been a positive change in the Russian approach to the war in light of Israel’s successes. India and Japan have also offered support, helping to balance international public opinion. The challenge will be to maintain and increase this positive momentum. To achieve this, it will be necessary to continue the war and seize the opportunity, both locally and internationally, to start a rebuilding process oriented towards creating a new local government in Gaza that is focused on the population's needs. The goal should be the establishment of a Gazan government that is capable of serving as an effective counterweight to any attempts by Hamas to reassert control.

Documenting the Enablers of Hamas War Crimes: UN Agencies, Government Aid Programs and NGOs

UN agencies, government aid programs and NGOs have consistently and willfully aided and abetted Hamas as it built its vast terror infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. They diverted aid money to Hamas to fund its terrorist activities, provided propaganda and disinformation support to Hamas in its efforts to tarnish and discredit Israel, and indoctrinated Gazan schoolchildren to hate Jews. Systematic documentation of the roles played by UN and government officials, as well as NGOs operating under the vast framework of international humanitarian aid, in enabling and cooperating with Hamas, both tacitly and actively, is vital to prevent a repetition of this abdication of responsibility and accountability.

After the Gaza War: Why Palestine Would Be a Lawless and Militarized State

Despite compelling logical and historical arguments against a two-state solution, louder and louder demands for a Palestinian state are being voiced worldwide. In response, Israel and its allies should remind global governments and populations that “Palestine” has no intention of ever living peacefully alongside Israel, but intends instead to replace the Jewish State in orchestrated and increasingly violent increments. Any pre-independence Palestinian commitments to remain demilitarized could quickly and even legally be undermined.

Should Israel Be Concerned About the Potential Impact of the Gaza War on US Security Aid?

The significance of US security aid to Israel extends well beyond the economic realm. It plays a crucial role in the nation's success and resilience. As Israel's war in Gaza continues, a war that was sparked by the invasion of Israel and large-scale massacre of Israeli citizens by Hamas on October 7, 2023, there is a growing call for a reassessment of this aid within the US Senate and among the American public. However, it is essential to remember that the bond between the US and Israel is reciprocal and yields benefits for both nations. Any decision to deviate significantly from the current arrangement would likely require much more substantial pressure on the US administration.

Dangerously Ignored Intersections: Palestinian Statehood and Regional Nuclear War

Though the issues of Palestinian statehood and nuclear war are usually treated by Israel as separate perils, they have the potential to intersect. Iran’s ties to an eventual state of Palestine, which are likely to be close, could lead to direct military conflict between Iran and Israel, and intra-crisis searches for “escalation dominance” by Tehran and Jerusalem could someday spawn a limited or even regional nuclear war.

An Opportunity for the US in the Middle East: 1973 vs. 2023

The Yom Kippur War of 1973 ended with a US-driven peace process that eventually led to Egyptian-Israeli peace. The war in Gaza, despite important differences, can do the same, kicking off a new American diplomatic effort that could eventually achieve an historic Israeli-Palestinian settlement linked to a broader Arab recognition of Israel.

How Will the Swords of Iron War Change Israel’s National Security Strategy and Doctrine?

Israel's national security doctrine collapsed on October 7, and the way in which the Swords of Iron War is being conducted is fundamentally changing its components. After the war is over, an in-depth review of the doctrine will be required. Fundamental questions will need to be discussed, such as: Is Israel giving too much weight to the Iranian threat? What is the basis of the national approach to the Palestinian issue? What is the right balance between independence and dependence on the United States? And is Israel a country that manages risk or actively shapes its environment? The main issue may be a return to the concept of preventive war and creation of a clear ranking between the core components of the doctrine – deterrence and decisive outcome – and the other components. It might be helpful to make these discussions part of binding legislation in which, for example, any new government would have to approve its National Security Strategy in the Knesset.

Perspectives Papers