- Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai
- Paper No. 2369
The achievements of the joint American-Israeli Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion are fundamentally changing Iran's strategic situation. However, several key variables remain that can affect the operation’s results. Future scenarios can include both the continuation of the existing regime and the rise of an entirely different regime in Iran. Preparations should be made now for the post-war period, including plans to enforce ceasefire terms and to resume hostilities, should either prove necessary. The international community should demand a serious agreement that addresses the chemical, nuclear, missile and proxy threats posed by Iran, as well as the regime’s oppression of its people and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Efforts should be increased to find leaders who can run Iran with a different approach: a “Gorbachev” in the existing regime and/or a “King” in another.