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Turkey’s political polarization along conservative and secular lines is showing signs of being a slow-fuse time bomb. For most Turks, the domestic “political other” is not just a rival but a traitor, an enemy within—and Turks are increasingly expressing their willingness to kill or die to purge that other.
Turkey exhibits a remarkably stubborn selective amnesia about its own history. The country claims the title of world’s greatest friend to the Palestinians and most ardent champion of their cause, yet forgets that the Palestinians assisted both the Armenians and the Kurds in their bloody fights against Turkey.
Between 1994 and 2015, the Kurdish vote in Turkey rose from 4.1% to 13.1%. A greying Turkey is facing a baby boom in Kurdistan: the Kurdish fertility rate, at 3.41, is a demographic weapon against the Turkish fertility rate of 2.09. These numbers suggest that Kurds could be the kingmakers in Turkey’s presidential election in 2023.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is faced with a dilemma: in order to avoid US sanctions, he must keep the S-400 system he purchased from Russia unopened, but doing so might open Turkey up to Russian sanctions. Erdoğan’s worst nightmare is President Donald Trump following through on his threat last year to “devastate the economy of Turkey.”
Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is constantly looking for opportunities to enhance its status as a regional superpower and promote its Islamist ideology in the Arab Middle East. Libya is the newest arena in which Erdoğan is trying to capitalize on inter-Arab rivalries, this time in service to his desire to lay claim to gas under the seabed of the Mediterranean.
The Erdoğan government in Turkey has banned fundraising efforts to fight the coronavirus in municipalities controlled by the opposition. It has frozen the bank accounts of the city of Istanbul and of soup kitchens, shut down hastily constructed coronavirus field hospitals, and cut off free bread distribution—all in opposition-controlled areas. The pandemic has forcefully reminded Turks how divided they remain—a division that is stopping them from coming together to stem a potential catastrophe that is national, not ideological.
The recent news about the involvement of Iranian diplomats in the murder of an Iranian dissident in Turkey sparked a flare of international interest from within the all-encompassing coronavirus pandemic coverage, largely thanks to unflattering comparisons with coverage of the Jamal Khashoggi murder in 2018 (which the Iranian press promoted with gusto). The relative lack of interest in the crime from within Turkey itself reflects Ankara’s willingness to consort with Shiite Islamists to its own advantage.

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