Turkey and the Future of the Eastern Mediterranean

Ankara’s moves in the Eastern Mediterranean, while very risky, have partly vindicated President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. At a time when his regime is faced with serious challenges at home, his Mediterranean adventures have been good for Turkey at the regional level. Other powers will have to consider how to respond to Turkey’s moves. Washington’s lukewarm support for the trilateral partnership of Israel, Cyprus, and Greece, for example, has not met the high expectations of those countries, which continue to function as a pillar of stability in the Basin.

UAE Targets Turkey and Qatar in the Mediterranean

Europe is being progressively sucked into the Middle East and North Africa’s myriad conflicts. As if wars on its doorstep in Libya and Syria were not enough, UAE support for an Eastern Mediterranean pipeline that could hurt Qatar economically—combined with Greek, Cypriot, and French opposition to Turkish moves—leaves Europe with few, if any, options but to get involved.

Thinking Beyond the EastMed Pipeline

While the construction of the EastMed pipeline remains a key goal of the Israeli-Greek-Cypriot cooperation during the COVID-19 period, economic adjustments will have to be made. The US has yet to actively support the project, making its implementation difficult. In the interim, the three countries can expand their cooperation by concentrating on other areas such as the fight against the virus, the relaunching of their economies, the battle against antisemitism, and synergies in the defense sector and cybersecurity.

Kastellorizo: Tiny Island, Colossal Dispute

Burak Bekdil
March 11, 2020
Paper No. 1479

Sitting just 2 km away from the Turkish coast and containing a population of only 500, the island of Kastellorizo, the tiniest of the Greek Dodecanese islands, is the focal point of a multinational maritime dispute. No one seems to have found a way to resolve the quarrel between Turkey and the EU + US + Israel + Egypt over this island.

The “Democratic Bloc” of the Eastern Med Cements Its Friendship

2020 is expected to be another year of fruitful cooperation for Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, which are working together to counter rising instability caused by Turkey. Their recent agreement to commit to the construction of the EastMed pipeline opens a new chapter in a friendship they have worked on for over a decade. They are taking steps to obtain American support for the trilateral scheme despite Washington’s concerns about its potential impact on the US’s long-term partnership with Ankara. Notably, the recent killing by the US of Quds commander Qassem Soleimani found Greece standing by its allies, the US and Israel, though that position risks undermining its relations with Iran.

The Battle for Libya: The UAE Calls the Shots

Last week’s inauguration of a new Egyptian military base on the Red Sea was heavy with the symbolism of the rivalries shaping the future of the Middle East as well as north and east Africa.

An Energy Silk Road in the Mediterranean

Israel has made the mistake of trying to integrate into a declining Arab World. Instead, it should prioritize its integration into the emerging Mediterranean bloc consisting of Italy, Greece, and Cyprus.

In the Aegean, Energy Sustainability = Increased Security

The challenging geography of Greece makes it hard for the country to take full advantage of its natural resources and expand its energy grid. Though it has doubled its share of renewables, it needs to redouble those efforts to reach the EU’s ambitious goal of covering a third of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2030. The Greek islands that have been at the forefront of the migration and refugee crises would particularly benefit from a targeted policy to reach that goal, as the transition would increase their energy security, reduce their energy costs, and diversify their economies. Greece has the potential to be a model of sustainability that would enhance the stability of the entire Eastern Med.

DEBATE: What Is the Future of the Israel-Greece-Cyprus Partnership?

In 2010, Israel decided to enrich its Eastern Mediterranean strategy by looking for new partners. In so doing, it turned to Greece and Cyprus. Slowly and steadily, the three countries expanded their cooperation and overcame previously held stereotypes about one another. Trilateral summits have provided the basis for important discussions on energy, security, trade, and culture issues. The sixth tripartite summit, which took place in Jerusalem last March, was attended by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. US support for the tripartite relationship could create new possibilities for the future of the Eastern Mediterranean. BESA joins the debate by posing the question: What is the future of the Israel- Greece-Cyprus partnership?

A New, Pro-Israel Government in Athens

The right-wing conservative New Democracy party’s accession to office in Greece will not weaken the country’s close ties with Israel and could even strengthen them, despite the presence in the government of a minister with an allegedly antisemitic past.