Turkey’s Win-Win Strategy in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has become an important component of Turkish foreign policy. Over the years, Ankara’s support for Baku has grown exponentially. Diplomacy was an element of this support, but more significant was the dispatch of sophisticated weaponry. Greater support for Azerbaijan coincided with Turkey’s more active foreign policy in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, and is now strikingly different from Ankara-Baku relations of the 1990s and even the early 2010s. The reason for Ankara’s assertiveness could be access to energy and trade routes.

What Biden’s Victory Means for Turkey

If Joe Biden remains loyal to his pre-election rhetoric, he might punish Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey with a slew of sanctions for buying critical weapons systems from Russia and helping to weaken US sanctions on Iran. But Biden’s history with Erdoğan gives mixed indicators of how he might deal with Turkey’s increasingly authoritarian leader. Biden will not be able to opt for a pragmatic approach to Ankara completely free of concerns over civil liberties and human rights—Turkey’s ever-widening democracy deficit makes that impossible. But Erdoğan’s team can “buy” a new modus operandi with Washington under Biden.

As Turkey’s Lira Tumbles, Erdoğan Pursues Neo-Ottoman Visions

The Turkish lira sank to a record low on October 22—a new blow for the Turkish economy, which has been battered by the coronavirus pandemic. The Islamist government led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is pursuing an increasingly daring neo-Ottoman policy throughout the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean, a push that is motivated in part by the need to help the economy bounce back.

Erdoğan’s Costly “Make Turkey Great Again” Program

Erdoğan’s “Make Turkey Great Again” campaign has come with military, diplomatic, geostrategic, and economic costs. Turkey’s posing as a military might has been met by Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s credit rating to B2, putting the country on a level with Egypt, Jamaica, and Rwanda.

Turkey’s Relationship with ISIS Proves It Is Deserting Its European Allies

ISIS was so successful in 2014 in part because President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey is a vocal supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. Any distance Erdoğan has placed between himself and ISIS is attributable to pressure from Russia, the US, and Europe, not to his rejection of the group’s Islamist ideology.

Greek Deterrence of Turkey: Living to Fight Another Day

Greece is facing a serious security challenge from Turkey, a fellow NATO country. The recent deterioration of bilateral relations has generated suspicion and distrust in Athens. The upcoming exploratory talks are bound to fail. The Greek deterrence strategy is shifting significantly because the possibility of conflict is growing.

From Tripoli to Tripoli, Turkey’s Real Aim Is Egypt

The recent explosion at Beirut Port highlights both Turkey's growing defense cooperation with Iran and its strategic interest in Lebanon, which facilitates Ankara’s provocative and worrisome agenda in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, Turkey’s unrestrained aggression in that region may be a diversionary tactic from its slow and patient pursuit of a complex strategy to surround Egypt with hostile forces on multiple fronts and undercut its powerful regional role.

Turkey: Islamism’s Corrupted Symbolism

Burak Bekdil
August 30, 2020
Paper No. 1720

The conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque and the desire to “Turkify” place names reflect the Islamist “conquest fetish.” Modern Islamists in Turkey have created a new version of Islam for themselves that differs from the religion’s origins.

Can Israel, Greece, and Turkey Cooperate?

The recent visit of Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis to Israel was highly symbolic. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of full diplomatic relations between the two countries. It may well be possible for Jerusalem and Athens to cooperate with Turkey, though doing so will require all parties to be realistic about what is possible right now in view of the current state of relations with Ankara.

Turkey’s Generation Z: A Youth Challenge to Erdoğan

Burak Bekdil
August 10, 2020
Paper No. 1685

More than seven million Turks born around the millennium—Generation Z—will vote in the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2023. By age group, they will be the next kingmakers. Studies show they remain distant to politics in general and Erdoğan in particular.

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