Russia Pressures Ukraine, to Little Avail

Emil Avdaliani
May 20, 2021
Paper No. 2039

What Moscow is after with its renewed military pressure on Kyiv is unclear, but the long-term ramifications are discernible. With each passing year, it becomes more and more costly for Russia to undermine Ukraine’s efforts to build more effective military forces and a stronger economy.

Ukraine, Russia, and the West

Having used brutal force to crush nationwide demonstrations in support of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, President Vladimir Putin has now embarked on a new venture. By mobilizing a huge number of Russian forces at the eastern borders of Ukraine and in the annexed Crimea, he is refueling a conflict that has been simmering since 2014. Or is it all for show?

Russian Foreign Policy: The Kremlin Has Learned to Bide Its Time

During simultaneous crises in Armenia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan, Moscow faced challenges that contained opportunities to reap geopolitical benefits. Moscow’s handling of these crises demonstrates that its policy toward its neighbors has evolved away from direct intervention and toward careful maneuvering, which is both face-saving and more geopolitically rewarding.

The EU and Russia: From High Hopes to Reality

EU-Russia relations are at their lowest since the end of the Cold War and show limited potential for meaningful improvement. The era of attempts to reset bilateral ties is over. The estrangement between Brussels and Moscow may contribute toward a strengthening of Europe’s ties to the US.

The Russian FM’s Gulf Tour: A Bellwether of US-Saudi Relations

As Russian FM Sergei Lavrov embarks on a four-day visit to the Gulf, Middle Eastern leaders are either struggling to get a grip on Joe Biden’s recalibration of US policy in the region or signaling their refusal to adapt to the president’s approach.

Russia and Iran Sign an Intelligence Pact

The Islamic Republic of Iran has experienced a number of serious counterintelligence failures over the years. Last month, Iran and Russia, a close ally of the Islamic regime, signed a pact that should assist it as it attempts to reform its counterintelligence.

Alexei Navalny and Public Dissent in Russia

The massive protests staged in Russia by supporters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny pose a serious threat to the country’s political elite. The Kremlin has a problem on its hands no matter what it does. Whether Navalny is kept in prison or released, his movement will be strengthened, and it has the potential to fuse to broader public dissent over Russia’s long-term economic performance and government ineffectiveness.

Biden and Russia: Pressure, But Not Too Much

As the world awaits Joe Biden’s inauguration as president of the US, Washington’s relations with China are under primary scrutiny. However, ties with Russia are no less important, as the two states have numerous differences across Eurasia. Washington will have to apply a careful balance of pressure on Russia to keep it from growing closer to China, and Biden possesses the statesmanship and experience to accomplish this. US-Russia relations under Biden should be strikingly different from what they were during the Trump administration.

Russia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Genuine Threat or Misconception?

While government officials and others have alleged a strategy that involves Russian-sponsored security organizations in recent escalations in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, these claims are largely misconceptions. The conventional wisdom fails to recognize these structures as representing alternative security perceptions held by Russia and other participating states rather than traditional NATO-style military alliances.

The Case of Belarus: Russia’s Fear of Popular Revolutions

Belarus is the last remaining state on Russia’s western border not to have experienced a popular revolution since the 1990s, but revolutionary fervor is growing there. Events in Minsk have great geopolitical import, as one would expect from a state located between Russia and Europe.

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