Kazakhstan, now an independent state and formerly one of the republics of the USSR, has the longest land border with Russia. It stretches for 7,600 kilometers, a significant distance that necessitates Kazakhstan's constant balancing act in Russian-Kazakh relations. The war in Ukraine temporarily weakened Russian influence in Central Asia, but now things are returning to their previous state.
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While Russia may have gained politically from the war – because of the close US-Israeli relationship—its influence in the conflict was quite limited and the deterioration of Russian-Israeli relations may yet change the Israeli position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Receding on some fronts, the West seems to invite Russia to strain its forces and make mistakes. African leaders, however, are pragmatic: they are no worse than Moscow at calculating benefits and costs, and therefore will not refrain from turning proximity to Russia into a bargaining chip with Western partners. The war in Ukraine and sanctions are limiting Russian resources, making business difficult for Russian companies worldwide.
Gagauzia’s elites, who remain in Russia’s sphere of influence, resist efforts by incumbent President Maia Sandu’s PAS party to bring Moldova into the EU and away from Russian influence.
Morocco, like many other African countries, maintained neutrality regarding arms supplies to Ukraine. The kingdom became the first African state to provide military aid to Kyiv. Once the shipment of all purchased armoured vehicles is completed, Morocco will rank second after Poland in supplying combat tanks since the start of the conflict.
In an attempt to change the vector of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree “On the territories of the Russian Federation historically inhabited by Ukrainians” and submitted it to the National Security and Defense Council. The Ukrainian leadership concludes that to end the war, it is necessary to destroy the Russian Federation as an empire seeking expansion and revenge, using a combination of military and propaganda means.
Since the onset of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022, Russian authorities and propagandists have been actively exploiting the great-power chauvinistic sentiments of ethnic Russians and Russified representatives of national minorities. “Russian national idea” has acquired an archaic appearance reminiscent of the doctrine of “official nationality”
Iran would become Armenia’s new patron and it could eventually join the ranks of pro-Iranian proxies, with dire consequences for the country. In this scenario, Iran would also gain new arguments and resources in its interaction with Russia, Turkey and India, which it could exchange for something else. This could create new threats to Israel.
By signing military cooperation agreements with France and the United States, Armenia have chosen to "Go West" as the most logical substitution to a major vector of Yerevan former foreign policy line. However, Armenia’s estrangement from Moscow, seems leading it to and entirely different direction - eastward, towards Iran and India.
The war and the anti-migrant campaign gave patriotic nationalists quite a dramatic increase in popularity at the level of social networks. The popularity of the Telegram channels of both media and individuals belonging to this segment of the political spectrum grew between 3 and 10 times by the end of 2022