PSCRP-BESA Reports No 53 (April 27, 2024)
The war in Ukraine intertwines with conflicts in other parts of the globe. As previously noted in PSCRP publications, Iran’s indirect involvement has linked this war to conflicts in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. Recently, an African dimension of this confrontation has become noticeable, turning into a global East-West conflict.
We are talking about arms shipments from Africa to Ukraine – old Soviet armoured vehicles, the operation of which is familiar to Ukrainians, can be easily modernised and upgraded in Eastern European countries. Since mid-2022, the United States has been searching for places to acquire such equipment, offering theirs in return – and not always outdated.
One of the countries where the US buys or exchanges armoured vehicles is Morocco. It is reliably known that the Moroccan Armed Forces have 136 T-72B tanks and 12 T-72BK tanks, purchased from Belarus between 1999 and 2001. Some of them were bought as early as the end of 2022, and their delivery to Ukraine in January 2023 became the cause of a conflict between Morocco and the Czech Republic. As stated by a high-ranking Moroccan official, “the T-72 tanks bought earlier in Belarus were being modernised in the Czech Republic, and it was the Czechs who handed them over to Ukraine in violation of the terms of the contract”.
With the assistance of the US, this conflict was successfully resolved, and Moroccan authorities agreed to supply T-72 tanks and spare parts to Ukraine. In return, Morocco will soon receive the latest version of the Abrams tank, the M1A2 SEPv3, from the US. As analysts at Infodefensa.com reported, the US and the Netherlands are funding the supply of no fewer than 90 Moroccan T-72 tanks to Ukraine, amounting to approximately 90 million euros.
In mid-2023, Moroccan media reported that the North African country is expected to receive Merkava Mk3 main battle tanks from Israel after “donating” its T-72 tanks to Ukraine. Israel has historically not exported its Merkava main battle tanks to foreign nations, and if exported to Morocco, it would mark the first instance of an African country possessing Israeli-made main battle tanks. Supposedly it was a part of a deal that included supplying Merkava to Cyprus to replace 41 T-80U/UK tanks “donated” by Cyprus to Ukraine, but it was jeopardised by the outbreak of the Israeli-Hamas war.
Before US intervention, Morocco, like many other African countries, maintained neutrality regarding arms supplies to Ukraine. The kingdom became the first African state to provide military aid to Kyiv. Once the shipment of all purchased armoured vehicles is completed, the kingdom will rank second after Poland in supplying combat tanks since the start of the conflict (more than 230 Polish T-72 main battle tanks have been supplied to Ukraine). According to data from the Czech defence company Excalibur Army, which was involved in modernizing Moroccan T-72s, by the end of 2022, only 18 units out of 90 had been prepared for shipment. Additionally, another 30 “Moroccan” T-72s were purchased in the second half of 2023.
The significant shift in position – from neutral to a major tank supplier – was compelled by external political circumstances for Morocco: escalating conflict with Algeria. The flashpoint of the conflict is the territory known as Western Sahara, which favors autonomy and enjoys Algerian political-military support, but which Morocco sees as an integral part of its kingdom. The United States brokered a 2020 agreement in which Morocco normalised its relations with Israel in return for U.S. recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.
A long-standing ally of Russia, Algeria, continues to procure military equipment from them. Naturally, Morocco seeks support from other major arms-exporting states and is ready for a deal that, in principle, allows for significant modernization of its arsenal while simultaneously positioning itself on the “right side of history.” Algeria boasts the second-largest active military force in Africa, surpassed only by Egypt. With a defence budget of $16.7 billion in 2023, it holds the continent’s largest defence expenditure. Predominantly, Algeria has procured approximately 75 percent of its military arsenal from the former Soviet Union, supplemented by acquisitions from China.
In response to Morocco’s military modernization efforts in collaboration with the United States, Algeria entered into a substantial contract with Russia in 2022. This agreement encompassed the acquisition of submarines, Su-57 (Sukhoi) stealth aircraft, Su-34 bombers, and Su-30 fighters. Additionally, Algeria aims to bolster its air defence capabilities with systems like the S-400, the Viking, and the Antey-4000.
The prospect of conflict between Algeria and Morocco presents a dire scenario, potentially destabilising the last semblance of order in North Africa. Egypt grapples with economic challenges, Libya remains mired in governance issues, and Tunisia teeters towards authoritarianism and economic collapse. Meanwhile, Sudan faces internal strife, while Chad, Mali, and Niger have undergone turbulent political transitions. A war between Algeria and Morocco would shatter the fragile stability in the northwest, exacerbating the overarching arc of instability across the region.
So if the war starts the U.S., that consider Morocco “a vital partner on a wide range of regional security issues» are interested in its swift victory, so it will not turn into another Ukrainian war. Morocco was designated a Major Non-NATO ally in 2004. It is the largest purchaser of U.S. military equipment in Africa. The United States has $8.545 billion in active government-to-government sales cases with Morocco under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system. According to the State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, recent significant prior sales include: 18 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers; 36 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters; eight AN/MPQ-64F1 SENTINEL Radars; 3 CH-47D Chinook helicopters; 40 LAU-129A Launchers with 20 AGM-65D Maverick Missiles; and a Gulfstream G- 550 aircraft.
Morocco’s support of Ukraine might be a tipping point in the conflict, as Russia is interested in igniting more and more open armed hostilities in other regions. North Africa and especially Algeria is one of the alternative sources of energy resources for the West, so for Moscow it will be a win-win situation.
PSCRP team