PSCRP-BESA Reports No 55 (May 05, 2024)
Since the beginning of the year, Russian and Moldovan media have often mentioned Gagauzia, an autonomous national-territorial entity within Moldova where the majority of the population supports pro-Russian positions. In early March, the head of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, visited Moscow, where she met with Vladimir Putin. In her Telegram channel she reported: “Vladimir Putin discussed with me complex regional and geopolitical issues, with our Gagauzia in the epicenter of them. I informed Vladimir Vladimirovich about the lawless actions of the authorities in Moldova, who are taking revenge on us for our public position and loyalty to our national interests. Chisinau step by step takes away our powers, cuts our budget, violates our legal rights, provokes instability and destabilization in Gagauzia and in the whole country. The Russian leader promised to support Gagauzia and the Gagauz people in defending our legitimate rights, authority and positions in the international arena”.
During a visit to Moscow, accompanied by the head of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, Dmitri Konstantinov, Evghenia Guțul raised the issue of a possible military confrontation around Gagauzia. She said that if Moldova unites with Romania, Gagauzia will start the process of secession. If Moldova interferes militarily after Gagauzia’s declaration of independence, the authorities of this republic will turn to Russia for help.
Understanding the development of the conflict between the central authorities of Moldova and the Gagauz autonomy in the context of its path towards European integration requires taking into account the nature and structure of Gagauzia, its position in the Moldovan political system and the history of relations with Russia. It is also important to note the geographical position of Gagauzia, which neighbors the Odessa region of Ukraine and the influence of Evghenia Guțul’s statements on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Gagauzia is located in the south of Moldova. Its population (according to 2014 data) is 134.5 thousand people and its area is 1848.5 square kilometers. Gagauzia consists of 4 enclaves, and its capital is the city of Comrat.
Gagauzia as a political entity emerged on November 12, 1989, when the movement “Gagauz Halk” announced the creation of the Gagauz Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic within the Moldavian SSR. This act was recognized unconstitutional by the Supreme Soviet of the Moldavian SSR. The Republic of Gagauzia existed as an unrecognized state until 1995. An attempt to regain control over Gagauzia by Moldova in 1990 failed due to the intervention of Soviet troops and Transnistrian separatists. In December 1994, an agreement on the peaceful reintegration of Gagauzia into Moldova was signed, recognizing Gagauzia’s autonomous status and giving the Governor of Gagauzia a seat in the Moldovan cabinet. This agreement led to the liquidation of the armed forces of the self-proclaimed republic (the “Budjak” battalion) and the withdrawal of some villages from Gagauz control, which resulted in the division of the territory of Gagauzia into 4 enclaves.
Despite becoming part of Moldova’s jurisdiction, Gagauzia remains under strong Russian influence based on pro-Russian sentiments in the autonomy (shared by 83.8% of Gagauz in 2014). In a certain sense, it has become a Russian “Trojan horse” in Moldova, used to shake up the domestic political situation. Unlike Transnistria, which retains the status of an unrecognized state, Gagauzia is included in Moldova’s jurisdiction. Perhaps, a similar role would have been played by “certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts” in Ukraine, if their reintegration had taken place in accordance with Russia’s requirements.
The widespread pro-Russian sentiment among the Gagauz is largely explained by their history. They appeared on the territory of their current residence in the early 19th century, after the deportation of nomadic Nogai people to the Ottoman Empire by the Russian authorities: the Gagauz were supposed to take their place. Although originally considered Turkic-speaking Bulgarians, they persistently preserved the Gagauz language. Literature in the Gagauz language appeared in the 1950s, but school education in the Gagauz language was not widespread. At present, the Russian language prevails in public life and in schools, especially in urban areas, although the Gagauz language is used in everyday communication among the rural population.
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, it should be noted that recently in Gagauzia the idea of creating a “Great Gagauzia”, including Gagauz localities in Ukraine, has been discussed. The border between the Moldovan and Ukrainian SSR, drawn by the Soviet authorities in 1940, divided the areas densely populated by the Gagauz. According to the 2014 census, there are 31,923 Gagauz living in Ukraine, most of them in Odessa region. The idea of creating a joint autonomy for the Gagauz and Bulgarians minorities has been repeatedly discussed in Moldova, given the close historical and cultural ties between these peoples.
Supporters of a “Great Gagauzia” and a unified Gagauz-Bulgarian autonomy on both sides of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border see Russia as a force capable of erasing this border. This could happen if Russian troops succeed in capturing the Odessa region and reaching the Moldovan border, as had been planned at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. Pro-Russian sentiments among Ukrainian Gagauz remained even after the beginning of the Russian aggression. At the beginning of the war, pro-Russian sentiments were also evident among Bulgarians in the Odessa region.
Evghenia Guțul became the Bashkan of Gagauzia in July 2023, she was nominated for this post by the pro-Russian Șor Party, which the Constitutional Court of Moldova recognized as illegal. The leader of this party, Ilan Shor, lives in Israel because of allegations of financial fraud. Despite this, Guțul won the election and declared her intention to strengthen ties with Russia. However, the question of her desire for armed confrontation with the central authorities of Moldova remains open.
The answer to this question is unambiguous — no. Modern Gagauzia does not have significant armed forces capable of confronting the armed forces of Moldova, despite their relatively low fighting capacity. Politically and militarily, Gagauzia is not comparable even with Transnistria, which does not pose a serious threat to either Moldova or Ukraine. At present, there is no Soviet or Russian army in the rear of Gagauzia, while the Ukrainian army, which supports Maia Sandu’s pro-European course, stands at the borders of the autonomy. This is clearly understood in Comrat.
Why, then, did Evghenia Guțul enter into a demonstrative conflict with the central authorities of Moldova, calling for help from Russia, which cannot provide real assistance to Gagauzia in the current situation? It seems that there are two main reasons for this:
- The mobilization of pro-Russian forces in Moldova ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for October 20 this year is becoming more and more pressing. Even more significant for Russians and their proxies in Moldova is the planned referendum on Moldova’s accession to the EU. Evghenia Guțul was present at the congress of opposition deputies of the Moldovan parliament, held on April 21 in Moscow, where the establishment of the opposition electoral bloc “Victoria” was announced. The leader of the Șor Party, Ilan Shor, who arrived at the congress from Israel, actually accused Maia Sandu of “usurping power”. The very fact that a pre-election congress of Moldovan politicians was held in the capital of the Russian Federation looked like a provocation, to which the Moldovan authorities immediately reacted.
- The attempt of Evghenia Guțul and the pro-Russian elites of Gagauzia to put pressure on Chisinau to improve the economic situation in the autonomy is likely to be based on financial concessions from the central authorities of Moldova rather than on hypothetical assistance from Russia. She is also trying to use Turkey to put pressure on the Moldovan authorities. It is very revealing that while in Moscow, the Bashkan of Gagauzia announced her intention to visit Turkey.
Until Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party came to power in 2003, Turkey actively assisted Gagauzia on the basis of pan-Turkic ideology. After that, relations cooled somewhat, but did not cease completely. In 2018, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Gagauzia. Evghenia Guțul and her predecessors as Bashkan of the Gagauz autonomy have always supported cooperation between Gagauzia and Turkey.
Gagauzia’s elites, who remain in Russia’s sphere of influence, resist efforts by incumbent President Maia Sandu’s PAS party to bring Moldova into the EU and away from Russian influence. They also seek Transnistria-like political autonomy amid strained relations with Ukraine and Moldovan support for PAS. Russia, by failing to take control of the Odessa region, is losing the opportunity to actively support these pro-Russian regions in Moldova.