Kabul in 1979, Minsk in 2020?

Lev Stesin
August 23, 2020
Paper No. 1705

Alexander Lukashenko’s days as the autocratic president of Belarus are clearly numbered, and Russia will likely play a key role in his exit. What is less clear is just how that exit will come about and what role the neighbor to the East will play. Recent history provides us with a few possible scenarios.

Putin’s Religious Soft Power Hits Jerusalem

Dr. Shay Attias
May 5, 2020
Paper No. 1550

The recent “backpacker deal,” the Crimean Peninsula annexation, and Russia’s Sochi Olympic Games are all examples of Vladimir Putin's global “smart power” strategy, which combines soft and hard power. In winning Russian sovereignty over the Jerusalem complex containing the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, he scored a significant soft power win.

Russia’s Troubles in 2020 Will Be Close to Home

Emil Avdaliani
March 4, 2020
Paper No. 1468

From a foreign policy standpoint, Russia should be fairly secure this year. In the Middle East, its main competitors will remain divided; while on a global scale, the self-absorption of the US and the EU should give Moscow some breathing room. Internally, however, Russia will face major challenges. As its economy continues to lag, domestic protests should increase across the country, as will the need to improve quality of life.

Straightening Out Russian Foreign Policy

Russian foreign policy since the mid-2000s tends to be perceived in contradictory terms: as either a negative for Russia or the product of a grand strategic vision on the part of the Russian leadership. It is also often falsely perceived as representing a break with the past. Moscow’s foreign policy moves need to be viewed with a balanced perspective and should be placed in their historical context.

Why Rapprochement with Russia Is Unlikely Under Zelensky

Emil Avdaliani
May 15, 2019
Paper No. 1173

Ukraine has a new president, 41-year-old Volodymyr Zelensky. While some argue that Kiev’s policy toward Russia is now likely to undergo a significant positive change, geopolitical realities suggest the opposite. Ukraine-Russia relations might in fact worsen now that Moscow has eased the citizenship process for Donbas residents.

The End of “Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok”

Emil Avdaliani
March 8, 2019
Paper No. 1106

The geopolitical divorce of Russia and Europe is not confined to the military or economic realms. Over the past several years, the differences have been ideological as well. A good example is the death of a once major political project, the “Economic Space from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”

The Fragility of Middle East Alliances

Competition among Middle Eastern rivals and ultimate power within the region’s various alliances is increasingly as much economic and commercial as it is military and geopolitical. Battles are fought as much on geopolitical fronts as they are on economic and cultural battlefields such as soccer.

Despite His Victory, Putin’s Problems Will Grow

On March 18, Russia elected Vladimir Putin for a fourth presidential term, making his rule the longest since Joseph Stalin’s. But this next term will be a new experience for both Putin and the Russian people. In terms of foreign policy, Moscow face increased Western challenges. Internally, Putin will have to decide whether to prolong his rule in 2024 or pick a successor – a process with significant foreign policy reverberations that will involve reshuffles and elite infighting inside the Kremlin.

Turkey and NATO: From Loveless to Hateful Marriage

Burak Bekdil
March 5, 2018
Paper No. 760

Erdoğan prepares to launch his campaign for presidential elections scheduled for November 2019. At a time of rising xenophobia and anti-western sentiments across Turkey, his campaign will undoubtedly target the “evil powers of the West,” adding to the isolationist Turkish psyche. Russian President Vladimir Putin could not have possibly found a better partner for his attempts to divide and weaken NATO.

Russia’s Eurasian Disunion

When the Eurasian Economic Union (aka the Eurasian Union) was unveiled in early 2015, it had one major goal: to strengthen Moscow’s position across the former Soviet space. By promising economic benefits and military protection, the Kremlin managed to bring Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan into the Union and solidify its influence over them. However, the Eurasian Union has stalled since then. It lags considerably far behind other major unions across the Eurasian continent in terms of overall economic and political influence, and will continue to face major geopolitical competition from the European Union (EU).

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