How a Saudi-Iranian Reconciliation Aids Israel

Rafael Castro
April 23, 2023
Paper No. 2192

The recent reconciliation agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia dismayed many Israeli policymakers, analysts, and journalists. The agreement suggests that Saudi Arabia is steering away from its course of rapprochement with Israel and cuddling up to the ayatollahs, thereby eroding Israel’s geostrategic position in the Middle East. But the widespread assessment of this development as entirely bad for Israel is short-sighted.

Media

Greater Middle East May Force China to Project Military Power Sooner Rather than Later

China may have no short-term interest in contributing to guaranteeing security in parts of a swath of land stretching from Central Asia to the East coast of Africa, but that does not prevent the People’s Republic from preparing for a time when it may wish to build on longstanding political and military relationships in various parts of the world to project power and maintain an economic advantage.

Imagining a World Without US Primacy

Emil Avdaliani
June 16, 2021
Paper No. 2073

The shrinking of the American presence in Eurasia will accelerate the creation of new spheres of influence. The US will still be a prominent player, but its power will be significantly curtailed and the global institutions it has built will decay—the inevitable result of illiberal states ganging up on the last remnants of the liberal order remaining in the heart of Eurasia.

China: A Necessary Rival to the US

Emil Avdaliani
May 30, 2021
Paper No. 2056

Ever since America’s rivalry with the Soviets came to an end in the 1990s, the US has struggled to determine what its global position should be. It could be that a rival is necessary for the US to clarify its goals and revitalize its stagnating position on the world stage. China could play the role of necessary rival.

Iran Remains Unworthy of Trust

President Biden is keen to resuscitate the foreign policy of Barack Obama and return to the Iran nuclear deal. But Iran, which remains focused on its goal of becoming the regional hegemon, is no more worthy of trust today than it was during Obama’s administration.

Israel’s Daily Battle to Block Iranian Aggression

Yaakov Lappin
March 22, 2021
Paper No. 1973

Iran’s hegemony scheme for the Middle East not only includes surrounding Israel with missile bases and heavily armed proxies, but also equipping territories further away, such as Iraq and Yemen, to be future bases of attack. Behind the scenes, and despite its severe economic distress due to US sanctions, Iran is working constantly to infiltrate and consolidate its presence in lands with partial or failed sovereignty, or, in the case of Syria, ruled by an ally.

The Hellenic Countries Are Integrating Into the Middle East

A lack of EU support against Turkey, as well as continued unfair economic policies, has seen Cyprus and Greece move away from Brussels and toward the Middle East.

The Swamp Returns to Washington

The incoming Biden administration has begun to appoint personnel and articulate policies, both directly and through the extended voice of the foreign policy establishment and the media. The return of second-tier Obama administration personnel and the marginalization of left-wing progressives portends a return to the process-laden policies of the past. International agreements and institutions, and a return to 20th century “rules” and “norms”, are unlikely to be adequate to confront rogue states like China and Iran.

A New Lebanese Civil War?

Despite their desire to evict sectarianism from their country’s corrupt government, Lebanese civilians are likely to see increased tensions across religious lines. Iran will continue to back Hezbollah despite its regional weakening, while Turkey and Qatar will play a bigger counterbalancing role by increasing their influence on the Sunni community.

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