In view of growing Middle Eastern turmoil since the Arab upheavals of 2011, the time has come for Israel to review the efficacy of its traditional policy of deliberate nuclear ambiguity.
The US presidentโs threats that the Iranian nuclear agreement has to be reevaluated, and Saudi Arabiaโs intention to continue the quest for nuclear capabilities if Iran persists in its efforts, are of great concern to the international powers. Here we examine possible responses of China to these issues.
This analysis argues that Iran is steadily making progress towards a nuclear weapon and is doing so via North Korea. Iran is unwilling to submit to a years-long freeze of its military nuclear program as stipulated by the July 2015 Vienna Nuclear Deal. North Korea is ready and able to provide a clandestine means of circumventing the deal, which would allow the Iranians to covertly advance that nuclear program. At the same time, Iran is likely assisting in the upgrading of certain North Korean strategic capacities.
Despite an increasingly complex security environment in the region, there is still only one potential โgame changerโ in the Middle Eastโs balance of power โ the nuclearization of Iran.
The steps suggested by Israel and other critics to improve the efficacy of the nuclear deal with Iran will have little effect. The deal is basically dangerous in nature, and needs to be rejected outright.
The proposed agreement with Iran is very bad. Even without using nuclear arms against Israel, a nuclear Iran will make the Middle East far more dangerous.
It is incumbent on Israel to use all the diplomatic and political tools at its disposal to halt the signing of an accord with Iran that leaves Teheran with the capability to produce nuclear weapons.
If a โpermanent agreementโ with Iran fails to guarantee the bare minimum safeguards against Iranโs nuclearization that Israel feels is necessary, the relationship between the U.S. and Israel will truly be put to the test.
The overall failure of the Agreement Framework to halt North Korea's nuclear program offers an important lesson in analyzing the potential effectiveness of a new nuclear agreement with Iran.
The novelty of the Islamic State, as well as the magnitude of the threat it poses, are greatly exaggerated. Iran remains the main threat to stability in the Middle East.