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August 25, 2020

There are signs that the current escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, far from being incidental to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, is driven by Russiaโ€™s and Iranโ€™s economic warfare against a competing state and the need to return Europe to dependency on their oil and gas in light of US sanctions. Armenia benefits from the bellicose activity thanks to a sophisticated information warfare campaign in a heated US election year that has been unmatched thus far by Azerbaijan. But Baku can still turn its underdog position around by pursuing an assertive and affirmative policy against aggressors on military, political, media, and legal fronts.
Following the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, the Syrian state became a breeding ground for militant groups and foreign fighters. While Assadโ€™s allies managed to save his regime, those alliances came at a price. The declining state of Syriaโ€™s demographic and economic stability combined with its deteriorating military power in the region has eliminated the need for Israel to view the Assad regime as a central threat to its national security, at least over the short term.

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