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November 30, 2020

This past Friday, the architect of the Iranian nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated in a well-organized raid 70 km outside the city of Tehran. A commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Fakhrizadeh headed the important Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research of the Ministry of Defense, which conducted nuclear weapons research. His killing reflects a major breach in Iranian counterintelligence and could indicate that the regime’s intelligence and security apparatuses have been compromised. Iran will have to respond to Fakhrizadeh´s assassination, but will likely do so in a manner that avoids full-scale war.
In June 2020, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence unveiled the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) at the Office of Naval Intelligence—a successor to the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program (AATIP). This paper dives down the rabbit hole with Defense Department  insiders, scientists, and declassified material to find answers to a host of questions: Are mystery craft near-peer adversary platforms or exotic US platforms? What is the technology behind them? What kind of threat do they pose? What are the geostrategic implications? And what are we not being told?

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