PSCRP-BESA Reports No 29 (January 15, 2024)
The ongoing war between Israel and the radical Islamist terrorist movement Hamas has a substantial symbolic and practical impact on the domestic political discourse and foreign policy of countries involved in military and geopolitical conflicts in other regions of the world, including the South Caucasus
Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s political stand on the regional and global levels can be understood by realizing its geopolitical position, its relations with regional powers, its skillful diplomacy and its resources. I visited Azerbaijan (Baku) right after October 7, 2023. The public reaction to what had happened in Israel after the horrific Hamas attack was quite favorable to Israel. Ordinary people (and there were thousands of them in the first few days after the attack) spontaneously came to the Israeli embassy and brought flowers, toys, and notes expressing sympathy, solidarity and compassion. I also visited the site, laid flowers and spoke to some people on the ground, many of them young people, who expressed their sympathy.
However, the official statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was short and dry: “We condemn the violence against civilians in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zone. We express our condolences for the tragic loss of many civilian lives both in Israel and in the Gaza Strip.” In meetings with officials in Baku, I expressed dissatisfaction with the statement stating that there is no equivalence between Hamas terrorist perpetrators and Israel defending itself. They sounded apologetic, referring to Turkey, Iran, and the entire Muslim world. One of the officials (of ministerial rank) told me, “Please understand that we cannot say more because of our Muslim friends, especially Turkey; but you have seen how people here feel. We support Israel, but we cannot openly say so, rather than using a dull diplomatic language.” The Azerbaijani parliamentary group for friendship with Israel issued a more appropriate statement expressing condolences to Israeli victims and demanding the release of all hostages. There were neither demonstrations in support of Palestinians nor rallies in support of Israel, as both were apparently prohibited by the authorities.
Azerbaijan seems to have been caught by unpleasant surprise, as it was on top of its triumph in Nagorno-Karabakh, having fully resolved the conflict that had lasted for decades on September 19, 2023. Another major development was that Azerbaijan put a lot of effort into improving relations between Turkey and Israel. As a result, Erdogan and Netanyahu met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September 2023 in New York, signaling a sharp turn toward better Israel-Turkey relations and inviting each other on state visits. And suddenly all these achievements were overshadowed by a brutal Hamas attack that forced Azerbaijan to take sides. Baku skillfully choose a maneuver: to please its key ally Turkey, which decided to almost openly support Hamas, while quietly remaining on good terms with its strategic partner, Israel.
According to officials, a few Azerbaijani nationals (with dual Azerbaijan-Israel citizenship) were killed during Hamas attack. Baku’s Jewish community had a gathering of several hundred people at the main Mountain Jewish synagogue, people prayed and spoke about the attack. The Jewish community leaders with whom I spoke expressed no concern; they confirmed the absence of any anti-Semitic rhetoric or actions. Moreover, they showed me the construction site of a new Jewish cultural center adjacent to the main synagogue, sponsored by the Azerbaijani government.
It seems that Azerbaijan, while using the official rhetoric of most Muslim countries, continue to value its exclusively and traditionally close relations with Israel.
With Russia and Iran, its most powerful northern and southern neighbors respectively, Azerbaijan continues to maintain working relations. Relations with Iran were very tense in the past few years (owing mainly to Azerbaijani-Israeli ties), but they appear at first glance to less bad now, since Azerbaijan continues to use the Iranian route to connect to its Nakhichevan enclave, as connection through Armenia (the so-called “Zangezur Corridor”) remains closed. Relations with Russia remain stable, as Russia needs Azerbaijan’s resources, as well as maintaining good relations with Turkey.
To summarize, Azerbaijani-Israel relations have successfully withstood the current crises in the Middle East. Azerbaijan has emerged as the only country in the political space of the former USSR that has managed to regain its territorial integrity, unlike Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, which are still dealing with so-called “frozen conflicts” on their territory (in case of Ukraine — “unfrozen”). Azerbaijan has managed to maintain an unthinkable “triangle” of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel, even as Israeli-Turkish relations have arguably soured to the worst level ever, while skillfully maneuvering along the lines of the new alliance between Russia and Iran. Azerbaijan continues to supply oil to Israel, which is vital, especially now, during Israel’s intensive operation in Gaza. An estimated 40% Israel’s total oil consumption comes from Azerbaijan through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (Turkey) pipeline.
Armenia
While Azerbaijan is successfully adapting to the new political reality in the region, Armenia is still struggling to chart its future political path. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan did not end with Armenia’s defeat in Nagorno Karabakh. Azerbaijan is demanding the return of international border crossings to the Azeri enclave that Armenia currently blocks (the Zangezur Corridor). Iran also strongly opposes Azerbaijan’s plans for the “Zangezur Corridor.” Azerbaijan claims that this obstacle is detrimental to the prospects for peace. A peace treaty with Azerbaijan has not been achieved and the prospect of one is still dim. Relations with Russia have deteriorated sharply. Iran probably remains the only Armenian “friend” in the region, and in today’s world, having only one “rogue friend” is not enough to survive, much less to prosper.
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), of which Armenia is a member, is in crisis. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian accused Russian peacekeepers of failing to fulfill their duties to prevent the return of Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Armenia skipped the meeting of the CSTO in Minsk on November 23, 2023 and boycotted the CIS meeting. Moreover, Armenia recently ratified the Rome Statute, thereby placing itself under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Thus, Armenia is obliged to detain Putin if he enters Armenian territory. Russia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs said that Armenia’s decision would have negative consequences for bilateral relations.
To be fair, relations between Armenia and Israel have never been perfect or even amicable. Armenians (government officials as well as Armenian organizations in the U.S.) have often complained about Israeli military equipment being sold to Azerbaijan and subsequently used against the Armenian army. It is therefore not surprising that the Armenian government and the mainstream Armenian media showed little sympathy for Israel after the October 7 terrorist attack. The Armenian Foreign Ministry issued a statement: “We are shocked by the violence between the Palestinians and Israel and targeting of the civilian population. We express condolences to the relatives of the victims and wish a speedy recovery to the wounded. We join international calls to stop the violence.” The statement did not mention the need to release the Israeli hostages, nor did it mention the Hamas’s terrorist attack. Recently, the ANCA, the main Armenian NGO in the U.S., published an appeal to the new American ambassador to Israel to put a halt to Israeli arms sales to Baku.
The Armenian organization has so far remained silent on the October 7 massacre, but has condemned Israel for sending weapons to Baku. The ANCA issued this statement at a time when Israelis are crowding into bomb shelters. The fact that Israel has suffered the worst massacre since the creation of the country has not prompted them to tone down their rhetoric or be more sensitive to Israel. Worse, Armenian Radio referred to the Hamas terrorists as “militants”, and Armenian Weekly unleashed even more anti-Israel rhetoric.
Ironically, with very few Jews left in Armenia, anti-Semitism there is on the rise. The problem has always existed, but after October 7, its manifestations and rhetoric became even more sinister. As in many other countries around the world, it develops along two vectors: blaming Israel for everything bad that happens, and hating Jews regardless of their relation to Israel. According to a 2014 study by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), 58% of Armenia’s population (or about 1,300,000 people) hold anti-Semitic views, one of the highest rates among the 100 counties studied.[3] Not surprisingly, with high levels of general anti-Semitic attitudes, anti-Semitism is on the rise.
According to the Jerusalem Post, on January 1, 2024, a serious incident occurred in the Armenian capital when a group of neo-Nazis marched through the streets of Yerevan carrying flags bearing stylized swastikas and chanting derogatory slogans against internal and external enemies. The incident came after reports of a second arson attack on the only synagogue in Armenia by local anti-Semitic groups. The true reason for these anti-Semitic acts is not only the current war in Gaza, but also Israel’s support for Azerbaijan. Moreover, no arrests have been made for either the Nazi march or the attempts to set fire to the country’s only synagogue. According to media reports, a group calling itself the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia threatened to attack rabbis and Israelis all over the world and praised Hamas and Hezbollah following the massacre of October 7. Also, according the Jerusalem Post, former Armenian military adviser Vladimir Poghosyan made antisemitic remarks and claimed to be helping Hamas and Hezbollah to kill Jews.
Thus, Armenia faces not only external challenges related to the continued confrontation with Azerbaijan and the lack of friends among its neighbors, but also internal ones, such as political instability and the rise of anti-Semitism. A comprehensive peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia seems to be the best exit strategy for both countries. As for Israel, the South Caucasus region, which is directly linked to the Middle East, is important. Israel will continue to maintain its strategic ties with Azerbaijan, and it would also benefit from an eventual peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, provided that anti-Semitic acts perpetrated in Armenia and by Armenians are strongly condemned and stopped.
Dr. Sam Kliger, Director of the Russian-language department and director of the Euro-Asian Bureau (director of Russian and Eurasian Affairs) of the American Jewish Committee (Washington), founder and president of the Institute for Research on New Americans (RINA), member of the IEAJC International Academic Council