Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 192
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: If the 2010s were a decade of defiance and dissent, the 2020s promise to make mass anti-government protests a fixture of the greater Middle Eastโs political landscape. Protests in the coming decade are likely to be fueled by the challenges Middle Eastern states face in enacting economic and social reforms as well as reducing their dependence on energy exports against the backdrop of a global economic crisis and depressed oil prices and energy markets. Complicating the challenges is the fact that youth, who often constitute a majority of the population, have lost or are losing confidence in government and religious establishments at a time when social contracts are being unilaterally rewritten by political elites.
Pressure on the Middle Eastโs autocratic rulers is likely to increase with the departure of US President Donald J. Trump, a staunch supporter of strongman rule, and the coming to office of President Joe Biden. In contrast to Trump, Biden has said that he will emphasize democratic values and freedoms. In doing so, Biden could contribute to renewed public manifestations of widespread discontent and demands for greater transparency and accountability in the Middle East and North Africa.