After years of tension, relations are warming between Tajikistan and Iran—a development that bodes ill for Saudi Arabia and its relations with that country as well as others in Central Asia.
The newly signed massive China-Iran agreement prompts as many questions as answers. One thing is clear: China has taken action at a time when the US is winding down its presence in Middle East and its relationships with Arab states have come into question.
While President Donald Trump’s Asia policy was not a central issue in the 2020 US presidential election, it had a huge impact on the American economy and security during his term as well as on Washington’s relations with countries in the region. President-elect Joe Biden will need to decide whether to tilt back toward Asia to balance China or leave Asia to China.
Geopolitical trends of the last two decades show that pivotal states in Eurasia are working to recreate their zones of influence. In so doing, they are challenging the US, which implies a corresponding challenge to the existing world order. Though Washington will be able to limit some powers’ ambitions, it has few tools with which to hamper the ambitions of Russia, China, and Iran.
As the shock from the coronavirus pandemic decreases over the coming months, both China and the West are likely to record successes in the economic and political realms. The crisis has set the stage for an ideological struggle between the West and China that will play a crucial role in determining the destiny of Eurasia throughout this decade and the next.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has ushered in a new age of global diplomacy. Asian countries are trying, with some success, to turn the global health crisis into an opportunity to enhance their soft power and fill the diplomatic vacuum left by President Trump. South Korea has launched a national campaign to brand itself as the “cutting edge” state in the fight against the virus, and its president is leading an aggressive diplomatic effort focused on the G-20 and Japan. The nations that emerge successfully from the global health crisis will gain influence, strengthen their diplomatic positions, and attract foreign investment—the essential components of soft power.
Though analysts tend to portray Russia’s foreign policy as truly global (that is, independent of Europe, the US, and China), the country is plainly tilting toward Asia. The Russian political elite does its best to hide this development, but the country is accumulating more interests and freedom to act in Asia than in Europe or anywhere else.
Eurasia’s Great Game is anything but simple and straightforward. A burgeoning alliance between China and Russia that at least for now is relegating potential differences between the two powers to the sidelines has sparked a complex geopolitical dance of its own.
Harnessing the Eurasian lands has always been difficult. The Khazars, an obscure people from the steppes that converted to Judaism many centuries ago, stand out as an exceptional example of how geography, economy, and religion can be used to advance geopolitical interests.
As competition grows more intense between the US and China, Moscow must assess which side will do more to help it solve its problems across the former Soviet space. Moscow’s choice will affect Russia’s identification as European, Asian, or Eurasian.