The China-Iran Deal: A Trial Balloon with a Clear Message

Hobbled by harsh US sanctions and a global economic downturn, Iran has discovered a new weapon: hot air in the form of a cooperation deal with China that carries messages to its opponents. China, albeit far less economically impaired, sees virtue in this arrangement too.

China and Iran Reach a New Stage in Their Strategic Partnership

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Tehran in January 2016 laid the foundations for the Iran-China comprehensive strategic partnership agreement. The two countries are now said to be in the final stages of negotiating an economic and security partnership that has military implications. This would create new and potentially dangerous flashpoints in the balance of power in the Middle East and would contribute to the ongoing deterioration of China-US relations.

The Iran-China 25-Year Plan: A Preliminary Assessment

Ofira Seliktar
July 21, 2020
Paper No. 1653

The newly announced Iran-China 25 Year Comprehensive Partnership is unprecedented in its scope. It contains a “mystery clause” that gives China control over how Iran spends its resources, which could ultimately amount to Iran’s selling its sovereignty to Beijing. The close military collaboration between the countries also has major implications for the decades-long US domination of the Gulf and large stretches of the Indian Ocean.

Syria Is Tempting, But Will China Bite?

China looms large as a potentially key player alongside Russia and Iran in President Bashar Assad’s post-war Syria. With Russia and Iran lacking the financial muscle and the US and Europe refusing to engage with the Assad regime, China is, from Syria’s perspective, a shining knight on a white horse. Syria could become a key node in China’s infrastructure, telecommunications, and energy-driven Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—but it could also drag China closer to the Middle East’s multiple conflicts.

As US-China Competition Unfolds, Russia Watches Closely

Emil Avdaliani
June 26, 2020
Paper No. 1616

Russia’s position is crucial in the unfolding US-China competition. There are two likely scenarios. In one, Russia is able to maneuver between the powers and score geopolitical goals in its neighborhood and in the Middle East. In the other, Russia is cast by the West as an outright enemy, leaving little room for compromise and allowing the country to fall further under Chinese influence.

Religious and Cultural Obstacles to China’s BRI in the Middle East

The successful implementation of China’s BRI strategy will largely depend on its ability to overcome the Middle East’s weighty political, economic, religious, cultural, and security problems.

Staring Into the Abyss of US-China Decoupling

Israel resides at the cusp of the widening US-Chinese divide, as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit to Israel attests. Pompeo’s visit was for the express purpose of reminding Jerusalem that its dealings with Beijing jeopardize its relationship with Washington.

Coronavirus, China, and the Middle East

The Middle East was already plagued by war, famine, and wholesale death in the form of multiple civil wars when the outbreak of Covid-19, a novel coronavirus, added pestilence to the mix. The pandemic offers a unique prism through which to assess the way China interacts with Middle Eastern states in time of crisis.

China and the Coronavirus Pandemic

The coronavirus pandemic is providing insights into the conduct and thinking of the Chinese leadership, which has far-reaching implications both internally and externally.

Coronavirus Could Revolutionize America’s China Policy

Emil Avdaliani
May 6, 2020
Paper No. 1553

Many argue that the coronavirus pandemic will ultimately benefit China more than the rest of the world, especially the US. After all, America is now the worst-hit country on earth in terms of human casualties. But the crisis could in fact help the US reorganize its geopolitical thinking toward the People’s Republic, resulting in a radical break in which Washington’s political and economic elites are newly unified against a rising Beijing.

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