Whither the Iran Nuclear Deal?

The incoming Biden administration is keen to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, provided it contains “some amendments.” This is in contrast to the Europeans, who are mostly willing to return to the agreement as it stands. The director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is demanding that a new nuclear agreement be signed, or at least that the previous agreement be changed in such a way as to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear break-out.

The Swamp Returns to Washington

The incoming Biden administration has begun to appoint personnel and articulate policies, both directly and through the extended voice of the foreign policy establishment and the media. The return of second-tier Obama administration personnel and the marginalization of left-wing progressives portends a return to the process-laden policies of the past. International agreements and institutions, and a return to 20th century “rules” and “norms”, are unlikely to be adequate to confront rogue states like China and Iran.

Biden and Russia: Pressure, But Not Too Much

As the world awaits Joe Biden’s inauguration as president of the US, Washington’s relations with China are under primary scrutiny. However, ties with Russia are no less important, as the two states have numerous differences across Eurasia. Washington will have to apply a careful balance of pressure on Russia to keep it from growing closer to China, and Biden possesses the statesmanship and experience to accomplish this. US-Russia relations under Biden should be strikingly different from what they were during the Trump administration.

The Emerging US Standpoint on Moderate Arab States

The return of a Democratic administration to the White House is considered a nightmare by both the Royal Court in Riyadh and the presidential palace in Cairo. The projected return of “politically correct” values to the center of US foreign policy, in addition to President-elect Joe Biden’s commitment to return to the JCPOA, should stimulate the leaderships of both Arab states to initiate an urgent dialogue with Biden to protect their critical interests in the region.

Asia Is Waiting for Biden

While President Donald Trump’s Asia policy was not a central issue in the 2020 US presidential election, it had a huge impact on the American economy and security during his term as well as on Washington’s relations with countries in the region. President-elect Joe Biden will need to decide whether to tilt back toward Asia to balance China or leave Asia to China.

Did Putin “Vote” for Biden?

After four years of supporting Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to curry favor with Joe Biden days before the US presidential election. He did this despite Biden’s sharp anti-Russian rhetoric and amidst the Democrats’ four-year-long accusation that Trump had colluded with Russia (with Biden himself calling Trump “Putin’s puppy”). Putin will never allow personal preference of one leader over another to override Russian national interests, and it is those interests that will dictate his diplomatic approach to President Biden.

The US Election: Preliminary Lessons for US Allies

It appears likely that Joe Biden will take office as president of the United States in January, and American allies will need to assess the implications. The reimposition of a revised Iran nuclear deal and reemphasis on the Israeli-Palestinian issue are to be expected, as is re-engagement with international organizations. Another likely factor is a diminishing of pressure on China. But the politicized nature of the American security state and the administration’s promised “Europeanization” of American laws and norms may also facilitate cooperation even as American corporate domination is promoted.

Whither Transatlantic Relations in the Biden Era?

Relations between the US and the EU are expected to improve during the presidency of Joe Biden, but it is not yet clear whether the disagreements Europe had with Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, were about methods or substance. Washington and Brussels can work together on issues like climate change and can probably find synergies in international organizations, but their understanding of security challenges remains different. The most likely area in which they can cooperate effectively is the creation of a coordinated Western approach to the problem of COVID-19.

Biden and Israel: Continuity and Change

The Biden administration will both continue and change Washington's fundamental approach to foreign policy. Biden will continue America's gradual withdrawal from world leadership, but will restore collaboration with the EU, NATO, and the UN, and assign more weight to human rights. He will try to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran and will be hesitant to expand the new Israel-Arab strategic alliance based on normalization agreements. He will continue the close strategic alliance with Israel and keep the US embassy in Jerusalem, but will reopen a consulate in East Jerusalem and restore economic aid to the Palestinian Authority and UNRWA.

Biden and Israel: A Return to the Obama Era?

The election of Joe Biden as the 46th president of the United States requires an examination of the significance for Israel of the transition of power. After four years of unprecedented breakthroughs for Israel during President Donald Trump’s administration, is Israel destined to return to the Obama era in the shape of his former deputy?